TX-9

Leticia Gutierrez (Dem)
Alex Mealer (Rep)

Favors Dem

Democrats100%

Democrats are favored, winning 100,000 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats100%

Democrats are favored, winning 100,000 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+45.8

5th–95th interval

D+31.8 to D+59.8

Estimated margin

D+41.9

5th–95th interval

D+27.9 to D+55.9

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+5.3

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor	Sep 18–Sep 19, 2026	560 rv	Alex Mealer 45.0% Leticia Gutierrez 39.0%	R+6.0	R+4.5 R+1.5 lean removed	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction TX-9 Sep 30, 2026

A TX-9 poll has Mealer at 45 percent, and our forecast has not moved

A Public Policy Polling survey runs far from our model's range for the district, which still gives Leticia Gutierrez a 100% chance and a D+45.8 average margin.

A Public Policy Polling survey of 560 registered voters in Texas's 9th District, fielded September 18-19, puts Republican Alex Mealer at 45 percent and Democrat Leticia Gutierrez at 39 percent. The survey was released via x.com.

Our forecast did not change. Our model gives Gutierrez a 100 in 100...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5