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535

NC-3

  • Raymond Smith Jr. (Dem)
  • Greg Murphy (Rep · incumbent)

Favors Rep

Republicans100%

Republicans are favored, winning 99,770 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans100%

Republicans are favored, winning 99,757 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+24.2

5th–95th interval

R+38.3 to R+10.2

Estimated margin

R+24.1

5th–95th interval

R+38.2 to R+10.1

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+3.8

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Tulchin Research dem sponsor Jul 27–Aug 2, 2026 n/a lv Greg Murphy 44.0% Raymond Smith Jr. 41.0% R+3.0 — Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction NC-3 Aug 31, 2026

NC-3 forecast moves away from the one poll on the board

A Tulchin Research survey for House Majority PAC put Murphy three points ahead of Smith; our latest run widened the expected Republican margin anyway.

The only public polling in North Carolina's 3rd District is a Tulchin Research survey sponsored by House Majority PAC, fielded July 27 to August 2 among likely voters. It found Republican Rep. Greg Murphy at 44 percent and Democrat Raymond Smith Jr. at 41 percent. No sample size or margin of...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction NC-3 Aug 31, 2026

A single NC-3 poll narrows our margin, not our verdict

Tulchin Research finds Greg Murphy and Raymond Smith Jr. within three points; our model still puts the district at R+23.9 on average.

One new survey is on the board in North Carolina's 3rd District. Tulchin Research, polling 600 likely voters from July 27 to August 2, put Republican Rep. Greg Murphy at 44 percent and Democrat Raymond Smith Jr. at 41 percent. The payload lists no margin of error for the survey; at that sample...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5