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535

NJ-7

  • Rebecca Bennett (Dem)
  • Thomas Kean Jr. (Rep · incumbent)

Favors Dem

Democrats73%

Democrats are favored, winning 73,322 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats73%

Democrats are favored, winning 73,322 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+5.3

5th–95th interval

R+8.7 to D+19.2

Estimated margin

D+5.3

5th–95th interval

R+8.7 to D+19.2

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+5.0 current average: D+5.0

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Rebecca Bennett (D) vs Thomas H. Kean Jr. (R) · 1 poll
StimSight Research Sep 8–Sep 12, 2026 498 lv Rebecca Bennett 47.0% Thomas Kean Jr. 42.0% Other 1.0% D+5.0 — Source
Thomas H. Kean Jr. (R) vs Tina Shah (D) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
Z to A Research dem sponsor May 24–May 26, 2026 430 lv Dem 46.0% Thomas Kean Jr. 43.0% D+3.0 — Source
Rebecca Bennett (D) vs Thomas H. Kean Jr. (R) · 1 poll
Z to A Research dem sponsor May 24–May 26, 2026 430 lv Rebecca Bennett 47.0% Thomas Kean Jr. 43.0% D+4.0 — Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction NJ-7 Sep 14, 2026

New NJ-7 poll shows Bennett at 47, Kean at 42

Our model still gives the Democrat a 68 in 100 chance in the district, essentially where it stood before the survey landed.

A StimSight Research survey for InsiderNJ, fielded September 8-12 among 498 likely voters, put Democrat Rebecca Bennett at 47 percent and Republican incumbent Thomas Kean Jr. at 42 percent in New Jersey's 7th District, with 1 percent for other candidates. The poll does not report a margin of...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5