NC-8
- Colby Watson (Dem)
- Mark Harris (Rep · incumbent)
Favors Rep
Republicans84%
Republicans are favored, winning 83,943 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Rep
Republicans84%
Republicans are favored, winning 83,943 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+8.5
5th–95th interval
R+22.4 to D+5.5
Estimated margin
R+8.5
5th–95th interval
R+22.4 to D+5.5
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
No public polling — forecast rests on fundamentals (state lean, national environment).
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.