PA-16
- Justin Wagner (Dem)
- Mike Kelly (Rep · incumbent)
Favors Rep
Republicans97%
Republicans are favored, winning 97,289 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Rep
Republicans97%
Republicans are favored, winning 97,289 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+16.5
5th–95th interval
R+30.4 to R+2.5
Estimated margin
R+16.5
5th–95th interval
R+30.4 to R+2.5
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
No public polling — forecast rests on fundamentals (state lean, national environment).
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.