AZ-2
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins in 51 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 19, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT
Rating
Tossup
Win probability
D 51%
Estimated margin
D+0.3
5th–95th interval
R+16.8 to D+17.4
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+3.0
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO | Jun 11–Jun 15, 2026 | 500 lv | Rep 44.0% Dem 41.0% | R+3.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.