AZ-2

Jonathan Nez (Dem)
Eli Crane (Rep · incumbent)

Tossup

Democrats58%

This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 58,252 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Tossup

Democrats58%

This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 57,774 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+1.7

5th–95th interval

R+12.3 to D+15.8

Estimated margin

D+1.6

5th–95th interval

R+12.4 to D+15.7

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+3.5

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Eli Crane (R) vs Jonathan Nez (D) · 1 poll
GBAO dem sponsor	Aug 21–Aug 24, 2026	500 lv	Eli Crane 46.0% Jonathan Nez 44.0%	R+2.0	R+2.7 D+0.7 lean removed	Source
Curtis Goodwin (LIB) vs Eli Crane (R) vs Jonathan Nez (D) · 1 poll
GBAO dem sponsor	Jun 11–Jun 15, 2026	500 lv	Eli Crane 44.0% Jonathan Nez 41.0% Other 7.0%	R+3.0	R+3.7 D+0.7 lean removed	Source

Dispatches about this race

Movement note AZ-2 Sep 4, 2026

Our AZ-2 forecast moves eight points toward Nez, to even

The model now gives Jonathan Nez a 50% chance against Rep. Eli Crane, up from 42% a week ago, with the mean margin at R+0.1.

Our forecast in Arizona's 2nd District has moved toward the Democrat. As of our September 4 run, the model gives Jonathan Nez a 50 in 100 chance against Republican incumbent Eli Crane. Our run on August 28 put the figure at 42%. That is a move of 8.1 points of Democratic win probability over...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction AZ-2 Sep 2, 2026

GBAO poll finds AZ-2 close as our forecast settles at even

Eli Crane leads Jonathan Nez 46-44 in the only new survey, and our model now splits the district 50-50 after having Nez at 42% last week.

A GBAO survey of 500 likely voters in Arizona's 2nd District, fielded August 21-24 and reported by Politico, put Republican Eli Crane at 46 percent and Democrat Jonathan Nez at 44 percent. Two points on a sample that size is not a measurable advantage for either candidate. The reading is a close...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Movement note AZ-2 Aug 27, 2026

Model moves AZ-2 toward Crane, cutting Nez to a 42% chance

Our estimate for the Democrat fell 9.5 points in seven days, over a stretch that included one district survey showing Crane ahead.

Our model now gives Jonathan Nez, the Democrat, a 42 in 100 chance of winning Arizona's 2nd District, down from 51% in our August 20 run. That is a move of 9.5 points of Democratic win probability across seven days, toward the Republican incumbent, Eli Crane.

The mean margin moved with it. Our...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction AZ-2 Aug 27, 2026

New Arizona poll shifts our AZ-2 forecast toward Crane

A single survey showing the Republican incumbent up 11 moved our estimate from a coin flip to a 58 percent chance for Crane.

A Peak Insights survey of 400 likely voters in Arizona's 2nd District, fielded August 17-20, put Republican incumbent Eli Crane at 53 percent and Democrat Jonathan Nez at 42 percent.

That is the only new number in this race, and it moved our forecast. Our model now gives Nez a 42 in 100 chance...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5