Dispatches

Our model has moved 28.3 points toward the Republican in Minnesota's open Senate race over four days. The September 29 run gave the Democrat a 92% chance of winning. The October 3 run gives the Democrat a 63 in 100 chance, and the Republican 37%.

The expected margin moved with it. Our model's...

Our model gives Democrats a 55 in 100 chance of winning control of the Senate, and Republicans 45%. The model's average outcome is 50.7 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. In the...

Our model now gives Democrat Sherrod Brown a 71 in 100 chance of winning the Ohio Senate special election against Republican Sen. Jon Husted. In our September 29 run, at 6:02 AM ET, that figure was 80%. The change is 8.3 points of Democratic win probability toward the Republican over four days....

Our forecast for Alaska's at-large House seat has changed sides. Our model now gives Republican Rep. Nick Begich III a 57 in 100 chance of winning, up from 32% in the run published at 4:32 AM ET on October 3. Independent Bill Hill's chance fell from 68% to 43%. Our model gives the Democratic line...

A New York Times/Siena University survey of 504 likely voters, fielded September 24 to October 1, has Democrat Mary Peltola at 50.07 percent and Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan at 43.07 percent in the Alaska Senate race.

The poll moved our forecast by one point. Our model now gives Peltola a 26 in...

A New York Times/Siena University survey of 606 likely voters in Iowa, fielded September 22 to October 1, puts Republican Ashley Hinson at 47.8% and Democrat Josh Turek at 47.0%. A gap of under one point in a poll of that size is not a lead. The race is close.

Our model now gives Turek a 58 in...

A New York Times/Siena University survey of 616 likely voters in Ohio, fielded September 22 to October 1, found Democrat Sherrod Brown at 48.8% and Republican Sen. Jon Husted at 46.1% in the special Senate election. That is a close race, not a clear lead for either candidate.

The poll confirmed...

A New York Times/Siena University survey of 615 likely voters, fielded September 21-30, has Democrat James Talarico at 50.8 percent and Republican Ken Paxton at 45.09 percent in the race for the open Texas Senate seat. John Cornyn, the Republican incumbent, is not among the candidates.

The poll...

Our model now gives James Talarico, the Democrat, a 65 in 100 chance of winning the open Texas Senate seat against Ken Paxton, the Republican. In our run of September 26 at 6:32 AM ET, the figure was 56%. The change came over seven days.

The expected margin moved with it. Our model's mean...

A New York Times/Siena University survey of 605 likely voters, fielded September 22-30, finds the Kansas Senate race between Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton effectively even. In the head-to-head version of the question, Marshall has 46.67 percent and Hamilton 46.39...

A Peak Insights survey of 500 likely voters, fielded September 28-30, puts Republican Sen. Jim Risch at 49 percent. The independent line is at 3 percent and other candidates at 2 percent. The poll does not name the independent candidate. Its published results account for 54 percent of respondents...

A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,095 likely voters, fielded September 29 to October 1, found Democrat Adam Hamilton at 44.4 percent and Republican Sen. Roger Marshall at 43.5 percent, with 2 percent choosing another option. A gap that small is not a lead. The poll shows a close race.

Our forecast...

Two new polls of the Maine Senate race find Susan Collins, the Republican incumbent, and Troy Jackson, the Democrat, effectively even. After adding them, our model gives Jackson a 60 in 100 chance of winning, down from 63% in our previous run earlier today.

A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,091...

A co/efficient survey of 837 likely voters in South Carolina's 1st District, fielded September 30 to October 1, has Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt at 46 percent and Democrat Nancy Lacore at 40 percent. Another 4 percent chose another option.

Our model now gives Lacore a 28 in 100 chance of...

Republican Rep. Ben Cline leads Democrat Beth Macy 59% to 29% in a co/efficient survey of 791 likely voters in Virginia's 6th District, fielded September 28-30. That 30-point gap is the only new poll in the race.

The survey pushed our forecast further toward Cline. Our model now gives Macy a 1...

A co/efficient survey of 1,113 likely voters, fielded September 28-30, finds the Nebraska Senate race close. On one ballot question it has Republican Pete Ricketts at 47% and a candidate listed as a Democrat at 44%. On a second question from the same survey it has Ricketts at 44%, the...

A new GQR survey of 401 likely voters in Kentucky's 6th District, fielded September 25-30, puts Democrat Zach Dembo at 42 percent and Republican Ralph Alvarado at 37 percent. It is the only new poll of the race in this update.

Our forecast did not change in any meaningful way. Our model gives...

A new Big Data Poll survey of the open Minnesota Senate seat, sponsored by the Public Polling Project, finds the race close. The poll of 622 likely voters, fielded September 29-30, puts the Democrat at 45.8 percent and the Republican at 43.6 percent. An independent draws 5.4 percent and other...

A Quantus Insights survey of 758 likely voters in Alaska, fielded September 28-30, found Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan at 46.5% and Democrat Mary Peltola at 46.2%. A gap of three-tenths of a point is no lead for either candidate. The poll shows a close race.

Our forecast did not move on the new...

A survey by The Bullfinch Group, sponsored by the Independent Leadership Council, did not change our forecast for Alaska's at-large House seat. Our model gives Bill Hill, the independent, a 67 in 100 chance of winning, against 33% for Nick Begich III, the Republican incumbent. Those figures match...

A McLaughlin & Associates survey of 400 likely voters in New York's 17th District, fielded September 28-30, found Republican incumbent Mike Lawler at 50% and Democrat Cait Conley at 47%. A three-point gap in a sample that size is within ordinary sampling error. The race is close.

The poll did...

An InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters, fielded September 28-29, found Republican incumbent Darline Graham at 46% and Democrat Annie Andrews at 45%, with 3% choosing another option. A one-point gap in a single poll is a close race, not a lead for either candidate.

The poll changed our...

A Tulchin Research survey of 500 likely voters in Maine's 2nd District, fielded September 27-30, puts Democrat Matthew Dunlap at 50% and Republican Paul LePage at 48%. A two-point gap in a sample that size is a close race, not a lead.

The poll moved our forecast only slightly. Our model now...

A new poll of Virginia's 5th District finds a close race between Republican Rep. John McGuire and Democrat Tom Perriello. An Expedition Strategies survey of 400 likely voters, fielded September 21-24, puts McGuire at 46% and Perriello at 45%. In the same survey, 6% chose an independent...

A Global Strategy Group survey of 800 likely voters in Kansas, fielded September 13-16 and sponsored by the Democratic Attorneys General Association, puts Democrat Adam Hamilton at 49 percent and Republican Sen. Roger Marshall at 47 percent in a two-way question. That gap is small enough that the...

A new Fox News survey of the Texas Senate race, conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research among 1,203 registered voters and fielded September 24-28, finds Democrat James Talarico at 53% and Republican Ken Paxton at 46%.

That result moved our forecast. Our model now gives Talarico...

Our model now gives Democrat Josh Turek a 61 in 100 chance of winning the open Iowa Senate seat, up from 58% in the run at 8:32 AM ET on October 2. Republican Ashley Hinson's chance moved from 42% to 39%. The incumbent in the seat is Republican Joni Ernst.

The poll in this update is a Beacon...

A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,085 likely voters, fielded September 28-30, finds the open Michigan Senate race close. Abdul El-Sayed, the Democrat, is at 46.9 percent and Mike Rogers, the Republican, is at 45.1 percent in that poll, a gap of 1.8 points.

Our model now gives El-Sayed a 76 in 100...

Our model gives Democrats a 53 in 100 chance of winning control of the Senate, with Republicans at 46%. The average simulated outcome is 50.6 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the...

A Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research survey for Fox News, fielded September 24-28 among 881 likely voters, has James Talarico, the Democrat, at 51% and Ken Paxton, the Republican, at 49%. A two-point gap in a poll of that size is not a meaningful lead. The survey describes a close race.

Our...

A Fox News survey by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, fielded September 24-28 among 1,008 likely voters, has Democrat Josh Turek at 49% and Republican Ashley Hinson at 47% in Iowa's open Senate race. That two-point gap is small enough that the race is best described as close.

The...

A Wedgewood Polls survey of 400 likely voters, fielded September 27 to October 1, finds Democrat Troy Jackson at 52 percent and Republican Sen. Susan Collins at 48 percent. A four-point gap in a sample that small is within ordinary sampling error. The poll describes a close race, not a clear...

A Lake Research Partners survey of 500 likely voters in South Dakota's 1st District, fielded August 26-30, found Republican Marty Jackley at 47% and Democrat Nikki Gronli at 43%. That is a close race in this one poll.

Our forecast did not move. Our model still gives Gronli a 0 in 100 chance of...

A DHM Research survey for Oregon Public Broadcasting of 543 likely voters in Washington's 3rd District, fielded September 17-27, found Republican John Braun at 48% and Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez at 47%. A one-point gap in a sample of that size is a close race, not a lead for either...

An InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters, fielded September 28-29, has Democrat Sherrod Brown at 44% and Republican Sen. Jon Husted at 43% in the Ohio Senate special election. Another 4% chose another candidate and 2% an independent. A one-point gap is not a lead in a poll of this kind....

A new Maine Senate poll shows a close race between Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson. The survey of 982 likely voters, conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research for AARP and fielded September 20-22, found Jackson at 50% and Collins at 47%. That three-point gap is small...

Republican Barry Moore leads Democrat Everett Wess 54% to 33% in an RMG Research survey of 800 registered voters, fielded September 21-25 and sponsored by Alabama Policy Action and Napolitan News Service. That 21-point gap sits close to what our model already expected for this open Senate...

A Change Research survey of 613 likely voters in Texas's 10th District, fielded September 18-22, found Republican Chris Gober at 48 percent and Democrat Caitlin Rourk at 41 percent.

The poll did not change our forecast. Our model gives Rourk a 1 in 100 chance of winning the seat, the same as in...

A Lighthouse Research survey of 515 registered voters in Utah's 1st District, fielded August 31 to September 10 and sponsored by the Utah Debate Commission, found Democrat Ben McAdams at 62.7% and Republican Riley Owen at 21.2%. Other candidates drew 3.3%. The remaining 12.8% is not assigned to...

A Lighthouse Research survey of 515 registered voters in Utah's 2nd District, fielded September 10-24, found Republican Blake Moore at 39% and Democrat Peter Crosby at 34%, with 4.9% choosing another option. That leaves a large share of respondents undecided. With a sample of that size and many...

A new Lighthouse Research survey of 508 registered voters in Utah's 3rd District, fielded September 2-15, finds Republican Celeste Maloy at 44.5% and Democrat Kent Udell at 26.4%, with 2.8% choosing another option. That is an 18.1-point gap. A large share of the sample did not pick any of the...

A Lighthouse Research survey of 513 likely voters, sponsored by the Utah Debate Commission and fielded September 8-17, found Republican Mike Kennedy at 41.7% and Democrat Jonny Larsen at 32.9% in Utah's 4th District. That is an 8.8-point gap in the poll. Another 5.7% chose another option, and the...

A new poll in Texas's 15th District shows Democrat Bobby Pulido ahead of Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz. The Normington, Petts & Associates survey of 400 likely voters, sponsored by House Majority PAC and fielded September 24-28, has Pulido at 54% and De La Cruz at 41%.

Our forecast barely...

A Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government survey of 609 likely voters in Virginia's 1st District, fielded September 23-28, puts Democrat Shannon Taylor at 50% and Republican Rep. Rob Wittman at 46%. That gap is small for a sample of this size. The race is...

A new Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government survey of 600 likely voters in Virginia's 5th District, fielded September 23-28, has Republican Rep. John McGuire at 51 percent and Democrat Tom Perriello at 45 percent.

The poll moved our forecast a little in...

An Emerson College survey for PIX 11 of 400 likely voters, fielded September 27-29, found Democrat Cait Conley at 47.9% and Republican Rep. Mike Lawler at 45.6%. That 2.3-point gap is small for a sample of that size, and the race in this poll is close.

Our model now gives Conley a 67 in 100...

With 33 days until the November 3 election, our model gives Democrats a 53 in 100 chance of winning control of the Senate and Republicans a 47% chance. Our simulations put the Democrats' average at 50.5 seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is...

Roy Cooper leads Michael Whatley by double digits in two new readings of the North Carolina Senate race, both from the same Big Data Poll survey sponsored by the Public Polling Project and fielded September 27-29. Among 642 likely voters, Cooper has 50.8 percent to Whatley's 38.5 percent, a...

A new Fox News poll of the open Michigan Senate seat finds a close race. The survey, conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research and fielded September 24-28, shows Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 50 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 49 percent among 1,028 likely voters. Among the...

A new co/efficient survey of 1,240 likely voters in Maine, fielded September 28-30, puts Republican Sen. Susan Collins at 48 percent and Democrat Troy Jackson at 46 percent. A two-point gap in a single poll is a close race, not a lead.

Our model now gives Jackson a 60 in 100 chance of winning...

A Public Policy Polling survey of 560 registered voters in Texas's 9th District, fielded September 18-19, puts Republican Alex Mealer at 45 percent and Democrat Leticia Gutierrez at 39 percent. The survey was released via x.com.

Our forecast did not change. Our model gives Gutierrez a 100 in 100...

A Zenith Research survey of 500 likely voters in South Dakota, fielded September 24-27, has Republican Sen. Mike Rounds at 53% and independent Brian Bengs at 47%.

Our forecast did not change with it. Our model gives Rounds a 99 in 100 chance of winning the seat and Bengs a 1% chance. Our...

A new poll of California's 6th District finds a close race between Democrat Richard Pan and Kevin Kiley, the independent incumbent. The Bullfinch Group survey of 927 likely voters, fielded September 1-6 and sponsored by the Independent Leadership Council, puts Pan at 36.7 percent and Kiley at...

A new Quantus Insights survey of 738 likely voters, fielded September 28-29, finds the Iowa Senate race close. In a head-to-head question, Republican Ashley Hinson takes 51.2% to 48.8% for Democrat Josh Turek. In a version of the question that included other candidates, the same survey puts...

A YouGov survey for the Catawba College Center for N.C. Politics & Public Service finds Democrat Roy Cooper at 48 percent and Republican Michael Whatley at 37 percent in North Carolina's open Senate race. The poll interviewed 885 likely voters and was fielded September 4-15, so it describes the...

An Impact Research survey of 500 likely voters in Montana's 1st District, fielded September 20-23, found Democrat Sam Forstag at 47 percent and Republican Aaron Flint at 44 percent. Nick Sheedy, running outside the two major parties, drew 2 percent. With a sample that size, the race reads as...

A Suffolk University survey for USA Today of 500 likely voters, fielded September 23-27, puts Democrat Sherrod Brown at 46.6 percent and Republican Sen. Jon Husted at 44.0 percent in Ohio's special Senate election. That gap is small for a sample of that size, and the race in this poll is best...

A new InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters, fielded September 28-29, finds the Minnesota Senate race close. The Democrat takes 46 percent and the Republican 45 percent, with 2 percent for other candidates and 1 percent for an independent. A one-point gap is not a lead. The poll...

Our model's estimate of the Michigan Senate race has moved 8.6 points of Democratic win probability in seven days. In the run of September 23 at 6:32 AM ET, it gave Democrat Abdul El-Sayed a 71% chance against Republican Mike Rogers. It now gives him a 79 in 100 chance, with Rogers at 21%.

Our...

A Marist University survey of 1,235 registered voters, fielded September 24-27, finds Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 54 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 42 percent in the Michigan Senate race. That 12-point gap is wider than anything in the polls this site has covered here over the past...

Our model gives Democrats a 58 in 100 chance of winning Senate control, against 42% for Republicans, as of 6:32 a.m. ET on September 30, 34 days before the November 3 election. Democrats need 51 seats for control and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie...

Our model now gives Democrat Adam Hamilton a 28 in 100 chance of defeating Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas. In the run of September 24 at 8:02 PM ET, five days earlier, the same model gave him 40%. That is a move of 11.6 points of Democratic win probability toward the Republican....

A Pulse Decision Science survey of 800 likely voters, fielded September 24-27, has Republican Ken Paxton at 48% and Democrat James Talarico at 45% in the Texas Senate race. A three-point gap in a single poll of that size is close, and the race should be read that way.

The poll did not move our...

A new Big Data Poll survey for the Public Polling Project, fielded September 26-27, finds the Ohio Senate special election close. Among 680 likely voters, Democrat Sherrod Brown had 46.3% and Republican Sen. Jon Husted had 42.6%. Among 735 registered voters in the same survey, Brown had 45.2% and...

A Cygnal/Beacon Research survey of 600 likely voters, fielded September 18-21 and sponsored by Michigan Enjoyer, puts Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 45 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 40 percent in the open Michigan Senate race. The seat is held by Democrat Gary Peters. With a single sample of...

A MassINC Polling Group survey for Commonwealth Beacon, fielded September 14-22 among 800 likely voters, finds Democratic Sen. Ed Markey at 54 percent and Republican John Deaton at 28 percent. That is a 26-point gap. Independent candidates drew 3 percent and other candidates 2 percent.

The poll...

A new poll of Wisconsin's 1st District shows a tied race. A DCCC Targeting Team survey of 495 likely voters, fielded September 21-23, has Republican incumbent Bryan Steil and Democrat Mitchell Berman each at 48 percent.

The poll confirmed what our forecast already showed rather than changing it....

A new survey in Ohio's 9th District shows a tied race. The DCCC Targeting Team poll of 481 likely voters, fielded September 22-23, has Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur and Republican Derek Merrin at 48% each.

The poll changed little in our forecast. Our model now gives Kaptur a 91 in 100 chance of...

Our model now gives the Democrat a 92 in 100 chance of winning Minnesota's open Senate seat. That is up from 83% in our run of September 23 at 8:32 PM ET, a gain of 8.2 points of Democratic win probability over six days. The headline figures are rounded, which is why they differ by slightly more...

Our model gives Democrats a 58 in 100 chance of winning Senate control, against 42% for Republicans, as of 6:32 a.m. ET on September 29. Democrats need 51 seats and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. Our model's average outcome...

Our model now gives Democrat Sherrod Brown an 80 in 100 chance of winning the Ohio Senate special election against Republican incumbent Jon Husted. In our run of September 23 at 10:02 AM ET, that figure was 61%. Our model puts the change at 18.5 points of Democratic win probability over six...

A Marist University survey of 1,298 registered voters in Ohio, fielded September 24-27, has Democrat Sherrod Brown at 51% and Republican Sen. Jon Husted at 43% in the special Senate election. That eight-point gap is the only new poll in this update.

Our model now gives Brown an 80 in 100 chance...

Our model's estimate of the Maine Senate race has moved toward the Republican, Sen. Susan Collins. In the run of September 23 at 6:02 PM ET, it gave Democrat Troy Jackson a 75% chance of winning. As of September 28, our model gives Jackson a 62 in 100 chance. That is a change of 13.6 points of...

A new Change Research survey of 1,063 likely voters, fielded September 25-27 and sponsored by Freedom Project USA, finds the Florida Senate special election close. Republican Sen. Ashley Moody takes 48 percent to 47 percent for the Democrat. A one-point gap is not a lead in a poll of this kind....

A new poll of Montana's 1st District shows a race too close to separate. The American Pulse Research & Polling survey, sponsored by NonStop Local and fielded September 19-24 among 314 likely voters, puts Republican Aaron Flint at 45.9% and Democrat Sam Forstag at 45.4%. Nick Sheedy, running...

Republican Kurt Alme leads the open Montana Senate race by 19 points in a new American Pulse Research & Polling survey of 604 likely voters, fielded September 19-24 for NonStop Local. Alme has 45.1%, independent Seth Bodnar 26.1% and Democrat Alani Bankhead 18.9%. Other candidates take 2.7%.

The...

A Hart Research Associates survey of 500 likely voters in Ohio's 15th District, fielded September 22-24 and sponsored by House Majority PAC, found Democrat Don Leonard at 46% and Republican Rep. Mike Carey at 45%. A one-point gap in a sample that size is not a lead. The poll shows a close race....

Two GBAO polls sponsored by Working Class Majority PAC entered our Nebraska Senate average today. Both are months old. Our model moved slightly after they were added and now gives Pete Ricketts, the Republican incumbent, a 93 in 100 chance of winning. That is up from 92% in our run earlier...

A Braun Research survey for Vermont Public Radio, fielded September 10-21, finds Democrat Becca Balint ahead of Republican Gerald Malloy in VT-1, though by less than our model had projected. Among 732 likely voters, Balint takes 46.92 percent to Malloy's 30.25 percent, a gap of about 17 points....

Republican Rep. Nick Langworthy leads Democrat Aaron Gies 52% to 35% in a Public Policy Polling survey of 626 likely voters in New York's 23rd District, fielded September 22-23. That is a 17-point gap, with 13% of respondents not choosing either candidate.

The poll did not change our forecast....

A new poll of the North Carolina Senate race shows Democrat Roy Cooper ahead of Republican Michael Whatley. The survey, conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research for AARP among 1,115 likely voters and fielded September 17-20, has Cooper at 53% and Whatley at 42%, an 11-point margin.

The...

A GBAO survey of 800 likely voters, fielded September 19-22 and sponsored by Senate Majority PAC, puts Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 48 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 44 percent in the race for Michigan's open Senate seat, now held by Democrat Gary Peters. Four points in a single poll of that...

A new Stratus Intelligence poll of the Texas Senate race finds Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico tied at 48% each. The survey of 865 likely voters was fielded September 22-24 and sponsored by Texans for a Conservative Majority.

The poll changed nothing in our forecast. Our model...

A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,090 likely voters, fielded September 26-27, puts Democrat Chris Pappas at 47.4% and Republican Scott Brown at 40.5%, with 1.1% choosing another option. That is a Pappas edge of about seven points in that poll.

Our forecast did not move on it. Our model gives Pappas...

Our model gives Democrats a 54 in 100 chance of winning control of the Senate, against 45% for Republicans, as of 6:32 a.m. ET on September 28, 36 days before the election. The model's average outcome is 50.7 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control. Republicans need 50, because the...

A new Big Data Poll survey for the Public Polling Project finds a close race for the open Texas Senate seat. Among 698 likely voters, fielded September 24-26, Democrat James Talarico had 46.8% and Republican Ken Paxton had 44.9%, with 8.3% choosing another option. Among the survey's broader...

Our model gives Democrats a 55 percent chance of winning Senate control and Republicans a 44 percent chance, as of 6:32 AM ET on September 27. Democrats need 51 seats for control. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. Our model's average...

A new Trafalgar Group survey of 1,087 likely voters in South Carolina, fielded September 23-25, shows a close Senate race. It has Democrat Annie Andrews at 42.3 percent and the Republican at 43.4 percent, a gap of about one point.

The poll did not move our forecast. Our model gives Andrews a 10...

A new InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters in Maine, fielded September 22-23, finds a close Senate race. It puts Democrat Troy Jackson at 46.4 percent and Republican Sen. Susan Collins, the incumbent, at 45.6 percent. A gap that small is not a lead.

The poll confirmed what our model...

An InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters, fielded September 22-23, finds the Iowa Senate race close. It puts Democrat Josh Turek at 47.4% and Republican Ashley Hinson at 45.7%, with 1.6% choosing another option. That 1.7-point gap is small enough that we treat the race as close.

The...

A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,079 likely voters, fielded September 22-24, puts Democrat Mary Peltola at 45.5 percent in the Alaska Senate race. The Republican share in the results we received for this poll is incomplete and not a plausible figure. We are not reporting a head-to-head margin from...

Our model gives Democrats a 55 in 100 chance of winning control of the Senate and Republicans a 44% chance, as of 6:32 a.m. ET on September 26, 38 days before the election. Democrats need 51 seats for control. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to...

A new Big Data Poll survey for the Public Polling Project, fielded September 22-24, finds the Michigan Senate race close. Among 678 likely voters, it has Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 46.7 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 42.1 percent. Among 725 registered voters in the same survey, it has...

An Opinion Diagnostics survey sponsored by Common Cause North Carolina, fielded September 17-20 among 857 likely voters, found Democrat Roy Cooper at 52 percent and Republican Michael Whatley at 44 percent in the race for the open Senate seat held by Republican Thom Tillis.

That eight-point gap...

A Torchlight Strategies survey of 643 likely voters, fielded September 15-19 and sponsored by Common Sense for America PAC, finds the Michigan Senate race close. It puts Republican Mike Rogers at 44.4 percent and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 43.1 percent. The gap is small, and the poll does not...

A Remington survey of 565 likely voters in Missouri's 2nd District, fielded September 14-15, found Republican incumbent Ann Wagner at 43% and Democrat Fred Wellman at 42%. A one-point gap in a sample that size is well within the range of ordinary polling error. The poll describes a close race,...

Our model now gives Democrat Jon Ossoff a 93 in 100 chance of winning the Georgia Senate race against Republican Mike Collins. In our run of September 18, it put his chance at 84%. That is a move of 8.7 points of win probability toward the Democrat in 7 days.

The projected margin moved with it....

An InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters, fielded September 22-23, has Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff at 50% and Republican Mike Collins at 42%. That is an 8-point lead for the incumbent.

The poll changed little in our forecast. Our model still gives Ossoff a 93 in 100 chance of winning,...

A GBAO survey of 800 likely voters, fielded September 3-8 for Working Class Majority PAC, puts Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts at 46%. His opponent is at 47%. The poll's release records that 47% under a Democratic label. The only other candidate in our race listing is Dan Osborn, an independent. A...

A new Slingshot Strategies survey for Texas Public Opinion Research finds Democrat James Talarico at 49% and Republican Ken Paxton at 44% in the Texas Senate race, with 3% choosing another option. The poll of 1,007 likely voters was fielded September 19-22.

The poll moved our forecast slightly....

A Big Data Poll survey of 678 likely voters, fielded September 21-23, has Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff at 55.4% and Republican Mike Collins at 44.6%, a margin of 10.8 points. The same pollster's registered-voter sample of 712, fielded over the same dates, has Ossoff at 51.0% and Collins at 40.1%, a...

With 39 days to the November 3 election, our model gives Democrats a 55 in 100 chance of winning Senate control and Republicans a 44% chance, as of 6:32 AM ET on September 25. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie...

A Wedgewood Polls survey of 500 likely voters in Kansas, fielded September 22-24, has Democrat Adam Hamilton at 50 percent and Republican Sen. Roger Marshall at 48, with 2 percent for other candidates. A two-point difference in a sample that size is small; on this poll alone the race is...

Our model now gives Adam Hamilton, the Democrat, a 40 in 100 chance of winning the Kansas Senate race, and Roger Marshall, the Republican incumbent, a 60 percent chance. That is a move of 14.8 points of Democratic win probability since our previous run on September 18, when the same estimate...

The one new survey in New Mexico's 2nd District shows a close race. A SurveyUSA poll for KOB-TV in Albuquerque, of 554 likely voters fielded August 28 to September 2, has Democratic incumbent Gabe Vasquez at 46 percent and Republican Greg Cunningham at 43 percent — three points apart, with the...

A University of New Hampshire survey of 830 likely voters in Vermont's first district, fielded September 17-21, has Democratic incumbent Becca Balint at 66 percent and Republican Gerald Malloy at 30 percent, with no independent support recorded. That is a 36-point margin.

Our model now puts the...

A University of New Hampshire survey of 622 likely voters in Maine's 2nd District, fielded September 17-21, has Democrat Matthew Dunlap at 51 percent and Republican Paul LePage at 45 percent.

Our model now gives Dunlap an 87 in 100 chance of winning the seat, with a mean margin of D+9.9 and a...

A University of New Hampshire survey of 657 likely voters in Maine's 1st District, fielded September 17-21, has Democratic incumbent Chellie Pingree at 57 percent and Republican Ronald Russell at 35 percent. That is a 22-point lead.

Our model still gives Pingree a 100 in 100 chance of winning...

A Public Policy Polling survey of 518 registered voters in Louisiana, fielded July 21-22, put Republican Julia Letlow at 41 percent and Democrat Jamie Davis at 37 percent. On a sample that size, a four-point gap is close, and the poll is best read as showing a race neither candidate had clearly...

A University of New Hampshire survey of 1,301 likely voters, fielded September 17-21, put Democrat Troy Jackson at 51 percent and Republican incumbent Susan Collins at 47 percent. The poll's margin of error is not included in what we have, so the four-point gap is best read as a close race with...

A University of New Hampshire survey of 556 likely voters in Massachusetts, fielded September 17-21, puts Democratic incumbent Ed Markey at 53 percent and Republican John Deaton at 30 percent, with 9 percent for other options. That is a 23-point margin, wider than the 19-point UNH lead this site...

A University of New Hampshire survey of 595 likely voters in Rhode Island, fielded September 17-21, puts Democratic incumbent Jack Reed at 53 percent and Republican Raymond McKay at 33 percent, with 5 percent for an independent.

Our forecast is unchanged in substance. The model gives Reed a 100...

A new poll of Minnesota's 1st District finds a close race. GBAO, polling for House Majority PAC, surveyed 500 likely voters September 18-21 and put Democrat Jake Johnson at 47% and Republican incumbent Brad Finstad at 46%. A one-point separation in a sample that size does not establish a leader;...

A University of New Hampshire survey of 707 likely voters, fielded September 17-21, puts Democrat Stefany Shaheen at 46 percent and Republican Anthony DiLorenzo at 42 percent in New Hampshire's 1st District. It is the only new number in this race, and it describes a close contest rather than a...

A University of New Hampshire survey of 694 likely voters, fielded September 17-21, has Democratic Rep. Maggie Goodlander at 56 percent and Republican Lily Tang Williams at 35 percent in New Hampshire's 2nd District, with an independent candidate at 3 percent.

That is a wider margin than our...

A University of New Hampshire poll of 1,392 likely voters, fielded September 17-21, has Democrat Chris Pappas at 50 percent and the Republican at 42, with 2 percent for another candidate.

Our model gives Pappas an 87 in 100 chance of winning the seat, and Republican Scott Brown a 13 percent...

Our model now gives the Democrat an 18 in 100 chance in the Florida Senate special election, down from 29 percent in our run of September 17. That is a move of 11 points of Democratic win probability over seven days, toward Republican Ashley Moody, the incumbent.

The mean margin in our...

A GBAO survey of 500 likely voters in Michigan's 4th District, fielded September 13-16, put Democrat Sean McCann at 47 percent and Republican incumbent Bill Huizenga at 46 percent. A one-point separation in a sample that size is not a lead in any meaningful sense. The poll describes a close race...

Two new Quantus Insights surveys of Ohio, each of 695 likely voters fielded September 21-23, show a close race. The head-to-head version has Sherrod Brown at 47.6 percent and Jon Husted at 47.2 percent. The version that offers other options has Brown at 47.3 percent and Husted at 46.8 percent,...

One new survey in Minnesota's 2nd District has Democrat Matt Little at 52 percent and Republican Eric Pratt at 40 percent. Impact Research fielded it September 9-13 among 500 likely voters.

Our forecast did not change. As of our 12:02 PM ET run on September 24, the model gives Little a 100 in...

A University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov survey of 650 likely voters, fielded August 28 to September 14, puts Democrat Troy Jackson at 48 percent and Republican Susan Collins at 43 percent.

Our model now gives Jackson a 56 in 100 chance of winning the seat, up from...

A Franklin & Marshall College survey of Pennsylvania's 7th District, fielded September 9-20 among 350 registered voters, put Democrat Bob Brooks at 45 percent and Republican incumbent Ryan Mackenzie at 40 percent. The sample is small and the payload carries no margin of error for it, so the...

A Franklin & Marshall College survey of 378 registered voters, fielded September 9-20, puts Democrat Janelle Stelson at 47% and Republican incumbent Scott Perry at 44% in Pennsylvania's 10th District. That three-point separation, on a sample that small, describes a close race rather than a clear...

A new poll of Montana's open Senate race shows Republican Kurt Alme ahead. Aspect Strategic, polling for Montana Freedom PAC, surveyed 715 likely voters from September 7 to 15 and found Alme at 44%, independent Seth Bodnar at 32%, Democrat Alani Bankhead at 14%, and 3% for others. No margin of...

A High Point University survey of 706 likely voters, fielded September 6-16, puts Democrat Roy Cooper at 50 percent and Republican Michael Whatley at 42 percent in North Carolina's open Senate race.

That is an eight-point margin, and it is close to what our model already had. Our forecast gives...

Two new releases in the Michigan Senate race come from the same field period and the same pollster. A Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov survey of 913 registered voters, fielded August 10-20, had Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 48 percent and Republican...

A New York Times/Siena University survey of 605 likely voters in Michigan, fielded September 15-22, put Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 49.5 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 44.5 percent, a margin of about five points.

Our model gives El-Sayed a 70 in 100 chance of winning the seat, unchanged...

With 40 days until the November 3 election, our model gives Democrats a 51 in 100 chance of winning Senate control and Republicans a 49 percent chance. The mean Democratic seat count in our simulations is 50.5. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority; Republicans need 50, because the vice...

A GBAO survey of 500 likely voters in Oklahoma's 5th District, fielded September 17-20, puts Republican incumbent Stephanie Bice at 48% and Democrat Jena Nelson at 43%.

That is the only new number in the race, and it moved our forecast a little. Our model now gives Nelson a 14 in 100 chance of...

A New York Times/Siena University survey of 619 likely voters in Maine, sponsored by the Portland Press Herald and fielded September 15-22, put Republican Susan Collins at 48.7 percent and Democrat Troy Jackson at 45.9 percent. The gap is under three points on a sample that size, which makes this...

A New York Times/Siena University survey of 613 likely voters in New Hampshire, fielded September 15-22, put Democrat Chris Pappas at 49.8% and the Republican at 44.8%, a five-point gap.

Our forecast did not move. We give Pappas an 87 in 100 chance of winning the open New Hampshire Senate seat,...

Our model now gives the Democrat an 83 in 100 chance in Minnesota's open Senate race, up from 65 percent in our run of September 16. That is a move of 18.1 points toward the Democrat over seven days, and it undoes the decline we wrote about earlier this month.

The margin estimate moved with it....

A co/efficient survey of 843 likely voters in Michigan, fielded September 21-23, has the open Senate race tied, with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers each at 50 percent. A second version of the same question from the same sample, offering another option, puts both candidates at...

A Hart Research Associates survey of 500 likely voters in Louisiana, fielded September 17-19, has Republican Julia Letlow at 48 percent and Democrat Jamie Davis at 44 percent. The gap is four points in a sample that size, close enough that the poll on its own does not establish who is ahead.

Our...

Our model now gives Troy Jackson, the Democrat, a 75 in 100 chance of winning the Maine Senate race against Susan Collins, the Republican incumbent. A week ago, in our run of September 16 at 6:02 PM ET, it gave him 58 percent. That is a move of 17 points toward the Democrat over seven days.

The...

The only new survey in Colorado's 8th District shows a close race. McLaughlin & Associates, polling 400 likely voters on September 16-17 for Enhancing American Competitiveness, put Republican incumbent Gabe Evans at 48.0 percent and Democrat Manny Rutinel at 46.3 percent. A gap of 1.7 points on a...

Three YouGov surveys of North Carolina, all fielded September 15-18, put Democrat Roy Cooper ahead of Republican Michael Whatley. Among 3,742 likely voters, Cooper led 53 to 41. A second likely-voter sample of 3,511 had it 54 to 41. Among 3,864 registered voters, Cooper led 52 to 41. Whatley's...

Three YouGov surveys of Georgia, all fielded September 15-18, put Jon Ossoff ahead of Mike Collins. Among 3,071 likely voters, Ossoff led 51-43. Among a separate sample of 3,301 likely voters, he led 52-42. Among 3,416 registered voters, he led 51-41.

Our model now gives Ossoff a 91 in 100...

Our model now gives Sherrod Brown a 61 in 100 chance of winning the Ohio Senate special election against Republican incumbent Jon Husted. A week ago, in our run of September 16 at 10:02 AM ET, it gave him 74%. That is a move of 12.5 points of Democratic win probability toward Husted over seven...

A Quantus Insights survey of 686 likely voters in North Carolina, fielded September 21-22, puts Democrat Roy Cooper at 48.4 percent and Republican Michael Whatley at 43.3 percent, with 0.5 percent for another candidate. That is a margin of about five points, narrower than the margin our model...

Forty-one days from the November 3 election, our model gives Democrats a 54 in 100 chance of winning Senate control and a 98 percent chance of a House majority. The Senate mean is 50.6 Democratic seats; Democrats need 51 seats for control and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a...

Our model's estimate of the Democratic chance in the Texas Senate race fell from 70% on September 16 to 55% now, a move of 14.6 points toward the Republican over seven days. The open seat, held by Republican John Cornyn, is contested by Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. Our mean...

A Marist University survey of 1,139 registered voters in Texas, fielded September 17-20, puts Republican Ken Paxton at 52 percent and Democrat James Talarico at 43 percent. That nine-point margin is well outside anything our recent run had been absorbing, and it moved the model.

Our forecast now...

Alaska Survey Research polled 1,352 likely voters from September 10 to 12 and released two sets of numbers. In the first, Mary Peltola takes 51.9 percent to Dan Sullivan's 48.1. In the second, drawn from the same sample, Peltola has 48.4 percent and Sullivan 3.7. The payload does not say what...

One new poll is in the ME-2 file. The DCCC Targeting Team surveyed 621 likely voters August 11-13 and found Paul LePage at 49 percent and Matthew Dunlap at 48 percent. That is a one-point gap in a survey of that size, which is to say the race is close in that poll rather than that either...

A Suffolk University survey of 500 likely voters in Michigan, fielded September 16-20, put Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 46.8 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 39.6 percent, with 0.6 percent for another candidate. That is a 7.2-point margin, wider than the results that led our recent write-ups...

Forty-two days from the November 3 election, our average of the generic congressional ballot stands at D+7.6, drawn from 28 polls fielded over the past 45 days. The numbers below are as of 6:32 AM ET on September 22.

The Senate is close to even in our model. It gives Democrats a 54 in 100 chance...

A survey from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center, fielded September 15-19 among 1,800 likely voters, puts Democrat James Talarico at 47 percent and Republican Ken Paxton at 46 percent, with 3 percent for other candidates. A one-point gap on that sample is not a lead. The...

Our model now gives Democrat Josh Turek a 56 in 100 chance of winning Iowa's open Senate seat, up from 45% in our run of September 15. That is a move of 10.4 points of Democratic win probability over seven days. Republican Ashley Hinson is at 44%.

The mean margin moved with it, from R+0.7 in the...

A Marist University survey of 1,050 registered voters in Iowa, fielded September 17-20, has Democrat Josh Turek at 50 percent and Republican Ashley Hinson at 42 percent. That is the widest margin in the polling our model has seen in this race in recent weeks, and it arrived after a run of surveys...

A new InsiderAdvantage survey of 600 likely voters in Florida, fielded September 20-21, has Republican Ashley Moody at 49 percent and the Democrat at 42 percent in the state's special Senate election.

Our model now gives the Democrat a 30 in 100 chance of winning the seat, down from 36 percent...

One new poll of Georgia's 11th District has Democrat Chris Harden at 42 percent and Republican John Cowan at 40 percent. That is a Miller Consulting Services survey of 402 likely voters, fielded August 31 to September 11. With a sample that size, a two-point gap is not a lead; the poll describes...

The only new number in Virginia's 1st District comes from the DCCC Targeting Team, which surveyed 519 likely voters September 15-17 and found Republican incumbent Rob Wittman at 47 percent and Democrat Shannon Taylor at 46. No margin of error is attached to the survey in what we have, and a...

Forty-three days from the November 3 election, our model gives Democrats a 52 percent chance of winning Senate control and Republicans 48 percent, with a mean of 50.4 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority and Republicans 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a...

Our model gives Democrats a 52 percent chance of winning Senate control and Republicans 48 percent, as of 6:32 AM ET. The mean outcome is 50.5 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. In...

A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,089 likely voters in Iowa, fielded September 16-18, puts Republican Ashley Hinson at 44.0 percent and Democrat Josh Turek at 42.1 percent, with 3.4 percent for other candidates. The gap is under two points, which is another way of saying the poll found a close race...

Forty-five days out, our model gives Democrats a 51 in 100 chance of winning Senate control and Republicans a 48 percent chance. The mean Democratic seat count is 50.5. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes...

A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,079 likely voters in Texas, fielded September 15-17, put James Talarico at 46.4 percent and Ken Paxton at 45.2 percent, with 2.5 percent for other candidates. A gap of 1.2 points on that sample is too small to separate the two candidates; the poll describes a close...

A Quantus Insights survey of 645 likely voters in Georgia, fielded September 14-16, has Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff at 49.0 percent and Republican Mike Collins at 44.9 percent. That is a 4.1-point edge for Ossoff, with Ossoff just short of a majority.

Our model now gives Ossoff an 84 in 100...

An InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters in New Hampshire, fielded September 16-18, puts Democrat Chris Pappas at 48 percent and the Republican at 40 percent in the state's open Senate race.

Our model gives Pappas an 85 in 100 chance of winning the seat, against 15 percent for...

A St. Pete Polls survey of 913 likely voters in Florida, sponsored by Florida Politics and fielded September 15-17, put Republican incumbent Ashley Moody at 45.2 percent and the Democrat at 44.8 percent. That is a four-tenths-of-a-point gap. The race is close in this poll; neither candidate is...

Our model now gives Roy Cooper, the Democrat, a 94 in 100 chance of winning the open North Carolina Senate seat, up from 85 percent in our run of September 11. That is a move of 8.3 points of Democratic win probability over seven days. Michael Whatley, the Republican, is at 6 percent.

The...

An InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters in North Carolina, fielded September 16-17, puts Democrat Roy Cooper at 48.4 percent and Republican Michael Whatley at 42.5 percent, with 1.6 percent for other candidates. That is a Cooper lead of about six points.

Our model now gives Cooper a 94...

Our model now gives Democrat Adam Hamilton a 25 in 100 chance of winning the Kansas Senate race, up from 5% in our run of September 11 at 10:02 AM ET. That is a gain of 20.7 points of win probability over seven days. Republican incumbent Roger Marshall is at 75%.

The margin estimate moved with...

An InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters in Michigan, fielded September 16-17, put Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 46.6 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 44.7 percent, with 1.1 percent for other candidates. That gap is narrow enough that the race is best described as close rather than as...

As of 6:32 AM ET on September 18, our model gives Democrats a 48 percent chance of winning Senate control and Republicans 51 percent. The mean Democratic seat total in our simulations is 50.2. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a...

A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,085 likely voters in Ohio, fielded September 14-16, put Democrat Sherrod Brown at 45.4 percent and Republican Jon Husted, the incumbent, at 41.5 percent in the state's special Senate election.

Our model gives Brown a 72 in 100 chance of winning the seat, and Husted...

One new poll of North Carolina's 9th District has Republican incumbent Richard Hudson at 46% and Democrat Richard Ojeda at 42%. The survey, from Lake Research Partners, was fielded August 31 to September 3 among 400 likely voters. With a sample that size, a four-point gap is close to the noise;...

A Quantus Insights survey of 625 likely voters in Montana, fielded September 14-15, found the three-way field bunched together: independent Seth Bodnar at 26.1 percent, Republican Kurt Alme at 25.3 percent and Democrat Alani Bankhead at 24.5 percent. The gap between first and third is 1.6 points....

A Tulchin Research survey of 600 likely voters in Florida's 27th District, sponsored by House Majority PAC and fielded September 8-13, has Republican incumbent Maria Elvira Salazar at 47 percent and Democrat Eliott Rodriguez at 46 percent. A one-point separation in a sample that size is not a...

A Harper Polling survey of 608 likely voters in North Carolina, sponsored by the Carolina Journal and fielded September 13-15, gives Democrat Roy Cooper 49.2 percent and Republican Michael Whatley 34.1 percent, with 2.9 percent for other candidates. That is a 15-point spread, the widest single...

A co/efficient survey of 799 likely voters in Alaska, fielded September 14-17, puts Republican Dan Sullivan at 49 percent and Democrat Mary Peltola at 46 percent. The three-point gap is small enough, on that sample, to be consistent with either candidate ahead. The race is close in this...

A Public Opinion Strategies survey of 400 registered voters in Pennsylvania's 1st District, fielded September 11-14 and sponsored by the NRCC, has Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick at 51 percent and Democrat Bob Harvie at 42 percent. The poll was released on x.com. It is the only new number...

Three new ballot tests from the same survey all show Republican Rep. Nick Begich III ahead of independent Bill Hill in Alaska's at-large district. In a Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research poll for AARP of 800 likely voters, fielded September 8-11, Begich led Hill 57 percent to 43 percent head-to-head....

A Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research poll sponsored by AARP, of 800 likely voters fielded September 8-11, puts Democrat Mary Peltola at 53 percent and Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan at 47 percent in the Alaska Senate race. That is a wider Peltola margin than the polls we have written about here in...

Two new surveys of the Texas Senate race point the same direction with different force. A ReconMR/Siena Research Institute/Texas A&M Bush School poll of 614 likely voters, fielded September 8-11, had Democrat James Talarico at 49 percent and Republican Ken Paxton at 43. An Emerson College survey...

Two surveys of the open Michigan Senate race, both finishing on September 14, found Democrat Abdul El-Sayed narrowly ahead of Republican Mike Rogers. A Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School poll of 803 likely voters, fielded September 10-14, had El-Sayed at 48 percent and Rogers at...

Our model, updated at 6:32 AM ET on September 17, gives Democrats a 96 percent chance of winning a House majority and Republicans 3 percent. The mean Democratic seat total is 242.3, against the 218 needed for control. Our House simulation draws correlated error at four levels — national, census...

A SurveyUSA poll for KSTP-TV Minneapolis, fielded September 9-14 among 654 likely voters, has the Minnesota Senate race even at 42-42, with 2 percent for an independent candidate and 2 percent for other candidates.

Our model now gives the Democrat a 65 in 100 chance of winning the seat, down...

Two new surveys of Nebraska's 1st District from Global Strategy Group, both sponsored by the Fight for Nebraska PAC, both of 600 likely voters fielded August 31 to September 3, show a close contest. One has Democrat Chris Backemeyer at 49 percent and Republican Rep. Mike Flood at 45 percent. The...

A Quantus Insights survey of 621 likely voters in Maine, fielded September 14-15, puts Susan Collins at 47.6 percent and Troy Jackson at 47.4 percent. That gap is two-tenths of a point. On its own, the poll says the race is close and nothing more precise than that.

Our model now gives Jackson a...

A co/efficient survey of 831 likely voters in Iowa, fielded September 14-16, has Republican Ashley Hinson at 46 percent and Democrat Josh Turek at 42 percent, with 2 percent for another candidate. The payload gives no margin of error for the poll, and a four-point gap in a sample that size is the...

A Wedgewood Polls survey of 500 likely voters in Nebraska, fielded September 14-16, put Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts at 52 percent against a Democratic option at 48 percent. The poll did not report a figure for independent Dan Osborn, who is the other candidate on our list for this race, so the...

A Rutgers-Eagleton poll sponsored by Montana Free Press, fielded August 27 to September 7 among registered voters, gives Republican Rep. Troy Downing 48% and Democrat Brian Miller 26% in Montana's 2nd District. Nine percent went to an independent and 5% to another option, leaving a substantial...

A Public Policy Polling survey of 536 registered voters in Montana's 1st District, sponsored by The Bench and fielded September 9-10, put Democrat Sam Forstag at 45 percent and Republican Aaron Flint at 43 percent. A two-point gap on a sample that size does not establish a leader. The poll...

A Public Policy Polling survey of 557 registered voters in New York's 21st District, sponsored by The Bench and fielded September 9-10, has Republican Anthony Constantino at 48 percent and Democrat Blake Gendebien at 43 percent. The poll's release did not include a margin of error, so the...

A Public Policy Polling survey of 536 registered voters in South Carolina's 1st District, sponsored by The Bench and fielded September 9-10, put Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt at 41 percent and Democrat Nancy Lacore at 40 percent. That is a close race by any reading, and a large share of...

A YouGov poll sponsored by Bowling Green State University, fielded September 1-10 among 1,000 likely voters, put Sherrod Brown at 48 percent and Republican incumbent Jon Husted at 45 percent in Ohio's Senate special election. Three percent picked an independent candidate and 2 percent named...

Forty-eight days out, our model gives Democrats a 48 in 100 chance of winning a Senate majority and Republicans a 52 percent chance. The mean outcome in our simulations is 50.1 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican...

Our forecast of the open Texas Senate race has moved about ten points toward the Democrat in a week. On September 9 the model gave James Talarico a 60 percent chance against Ken Paxton; as of the September 16 run it gives him a 70 in 100 chance. The shift is 9.7 points of Democratic win...

A GBAO survey of 500 likely voters in North Carolina's 1st District, fielded September 8-11 for House Majority PAC, has Democratic incumbent Don Davis at 50% and Republican Laurie Buckhout at 43%.

That is close to what our model already had. Our forecast gives Davis an 89 in 100 chance, with a...

A new poll of Maine's 2nd District has the race even. Impact Research, polling for House Majority PAC, surveyed 500 likely voters September 8-12 and found Republican Paul LePage at 49 percent and Democrat Matthew Dunlap at 49 percent.

Our forecast did not change. As of 4:02 PM ET on September...

A Cygnal Political survey of 500 likely voters in Iowa, sponsored by the Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation and fielded September 9-11, put Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson level at 42.9 percent each, with 3.6 percent for other candidates. That is a tie, and it is the only new...

A co/efficient survey of 833 likely voters in Minnesota, fielded September 14-15, put the Democrat at 43 percent and the Republican at 42 percent, with 2 percent for an independent and 2 percent for other candidates. That one-point gap is too small to call a lead. The race, on this poll, is...

Our model now gives the Democrat a 78 in 100 chance in the Minnesota Senate race, down from 94 percent in our run of September 8. That is a move of 16.3 points toward the Republican over seven days. Our projected margin narrowed over the same span, from D+9.7 to D+4.6, and our 5th-to-95th...

A Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey for Telemundo, fielded September 8-10 among 625 likely voters, has Democrat James Talarico at 46 percent and Republican Ken Paxton at 43 percent, with 3 percent for another candidate. The three-point gap on that sample size is too narrow to call a lead; the...

A Rutgers-Eagleton survey of 375 registered voters in Montana's 1st District, sponsored by Montana Free Press and fielded August 27 to September 7, found Republican Aaron Flint at 42 percent and Democrat Sam Forstag at 41 percent, with 5 percent for other candidates. On a sample that small, a...

Forty-nine days out, our model splits the Senate almost exactly down the middle: a 50% chance Democrats win control, 49% for Republicans, with a mean of 50.3 Democratic seats as of 6:32 AM ET. The thresholds are asymmetric. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority; Republicans need 50, because the...

A co/efficient survey of 958 likely voters in New Hampshire, fielded September 9-11, found the Senate race even: Chris Pappas at 46 percent and the Republican line at 46 percent.

Our forecast did not follow the poll. The model now gives Pappas, the Democrat, an 84 in 100 chance of winning the...

Our model now gives Sherrod Brown, the Democrat, a 61 in 100 chance of winning the Ohio Senate special election against Republican Sen. Jon Husted. That is up 19.9 points from the 42% our September 7 run gave him, a move of seven days.

One poll of the race arrived in between. An InsiderAdvantage...

A StimSight Research survey for InsiderNJ, fielded September 8-12 among 498 likely voters, put Democrat Rebecca Bennett at 47 percent and Republican incumbent Thomas Kean Jr. at 42 percent in New Jersey's 7th District, with 1 percent for other candidates. The poll does not report a margin of...

One new survey in Nebraska's 2nd District has Democrat Denise Powell at 46 percent and Republican Brinker Harding at 42 percent. That is SurveyUSA, sponsored by Grant Forbes, LLC, fielded September 8-13 among 182 likely voters. The sample is small and the payload lists no margin of error, so the...

A SurveyUSA poll of 503 likely voters in Nebraska, sponsored by Grant Forbes, LLC and fielded September 8-13, records Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts at 42 percent and a non-Republican line, labeled Democrat in the released results, at 46 percent. The candidate field in this race, as our model...

One new survey of Florida's 27th District has the race even. Bendixen & Amandi International, polling 600 likely voters from August 25 to 30 and reported by Politico, put Republican incumbent Maria Elvira Salazar at 45 percent and Democrat Eliott Rodriguez at 45 percent.

Our forecast did not...

Fifty days out, our model splits Senate control down the middle: a 50 in 100 chance of a Democratic majority and the same for Republicans, as of 6:32 AM ET on September 14. The mean outcome in our simulations is 50.3 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 for a majority and Republicans need 50,...

Our forecast of the Iowa Senate race has moved toward the Democrat, Josh Turek. On September 7 our model gave him a 33% chance against Republican Ashley Hinson. As of the run dated September 14 at 12:32 AM ET, it gives him a 46 in 100 chance. That is a shift of 12.7 points of win probability over...

A SoCal Strategies survey of 649 likely voters in Texas, fielded September 12-13, put Democrat James Talarico at 50 percent and Republican Ken Paxton at 45 percent. The poll, published at socalstrategies.substack.com, did not come with a stated margin of error in what we have, so the five-point...

A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,091 likely voters in Georgia, fielded September 10-12, has Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff at 49.4% and Republican Mike Collins at 42.8%, with 1.3% for an independent. That is a margin of 6.6 points for Ossoff.

The poll sits close to where our model already had the...

A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,084 likely voters in North Carolina, fielded September 8-10, puts Democrat Roy Cooper at 48.2 percent and Republican Michael Whatley at 42.3 percent, with 1.3 percent for other candidates. That is a Cooper lead of just under six points.

Our model now gives Cooper an...

The only poll in our NV-2 file remains a GBAO survey of 500 likely voters, sponsored by the Nevada Alliance and fielded August 31 to September 3. It has Democrat Teresa Benitez-Thompson at 38 percent, Republican Dave Flippo at 37 percent, and 14 percent for other options. That is a close result,...

Our model gives Democrats a 49 in 100 chance of a Senate majority and Republicans a 50 percent chance, with a mean of 50.3 Democratic seats as of 6:32 a.m. ET. Democrats need 51 seats for control and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the...

A Rutgers-Eagleton survey of 845 registered voters, sponsored by Montana Free Press and fielded August 27 to September 7, has Republican Kurt Alme at 38 percent, independent Seth Bodnar at 30 percent, Democrat Alani Bankhead at 16 percent and other candidates at 5 percent.

Our model now gives...

Our generic ballot average stands at D+6.7, drawn from 24 polls fielded in the last 45 days, as of 6:32 AM ET on September 12. Fifty-two days remain before the November 3 election.

The Senate is even. Our model gives Democrats a 50 in 100 chance of winning control and Republicans the same, with...

A co/efficient survey of 915 likely voters in Kansas, fielded September 8-10, puts Republican Sen. Roger Marshall at 49 percent and Democrat Adam Hamilton at 44 percent, with 2 percent for other candidates.

Our model now gives Hamilton an 11 in 100 chance of winning the seat, with Marshall at 89...

Two YouGov surveys of Iowa likely voters, both fielded September 3-8, have Democrat Josh Turek a few points ahead of Republican Ashley Hinson. One, of 2,041 likely voters, put Turek at 47 percent and Hinson at 43. The other, of 2,127 likely voters, had Turek at 45 and Hinson at 43 — a gap small...

A YouGov survey of 2,166 registered voters in Iowa, fielded September 3-8, put Democrat Josh Turek at 44 percent and Republican Ashley Hinson at 43 percent. That one-point gap is not a lead in any meaningful sense; the poll describes a close race for the open seat held by Republican Joni...

A Quantus Insights survey of 720 likely voters in Minnesota, fielded September 8-10, put the Democrat at 48.9 percent and the Republican at 45.4 percent. That is a gap of three and a half points on a sample of that size, close enough that the poll on its own does not establish who is ahead. It is...

A Quantus Insights survey of 733 likely voters in Florida, fielded September 8-10, puts Republican Ashley Moody at 50.4 percent and the Democrat at 43.0 percent in the state's special Senate election. That is a Moody lead of 7.4 points, wider than the sampling error on a survey of that size would...

A Public Policy Polling survey of 629 registered voters in South Dakota, fielded September 8-9, had Republican incumbent Mike Rounds at 45 percent and independent Brian Bengs at 42 percent. The poll does not report a margin of error, and a three-point gap in a sample that size is close.

Our...

Fifty-three days from the November 3 election, our model gives Democrats a 48 percent chance of winning Senate control and Republicans 51 percent, as of 6:32 AM ET Friday. The mean outcome in our simulations is 50.2 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority; Republicans need 50,...

A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,079 likely voters in Michigan, fielded September 7-9, put Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 46.3 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 44.8 percent, with 0.2 percent for other candidates. The gap is 1.5 points. That is a close race, not a lead.

Our forecast did not change....

An InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters in Texas, fielded September 8-9, put Democrat James Talarico at 47.1% and Republican Ken Paxton at 45.6%, with 2.2% for other candidates. The gap is 1.5 points. That is a close race, not a lead.

Our model now gives Talarico a 67 in 100 chance of...

An InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters in Ohio, fielded September 8-9, put Sherrod Brown at 47.3 percent and Republican incumbent Jon Husted at 41.9 percent, a margin of 5.4 points for the Democrat.

Our model now gives Brown a 70 in 100 chance of winning the special election, with a...

A Change Research survey of 1,107 likely voters in Florida, fielded September 7-9 and sponsored by Freedom Project USA, has the Senate special election tied: 47% for Republican Ashley Moody, 47% for the Democrat.

Our model now gives the Democrat a 34 in 100 chance in Florida, with a mean margin...

Our forecast of the South Carolina Senate race has moved toward the Democrat, Annie Andrews, over the past week. On September 3 at 6:32 PM ET our model gave her an 8 percent chance of winning. As of September 10 at 6:02 PM ET it gives her 19 in 100, a gain of 11.1 points across seven days. The...

Our model gives Roy Cooper, the Democrat, an 87 in 100 chance of winning the open North Carolina Senate seat, up from 79 percent in our run of September 3. That is a gain of eight points of win probability over seven days. Michael Whatley, the Republican, is at 13 percent.

The projected margin...

A Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research poll of 895 likely voters in Texas, sponsored by AARP and fielded August 30 to September 1, put Democrat James Talarico at 48 percent and Republican Ken Paxton at 44 percent. No margin of error accompanies the result in our data, so the four-point gap is best read...

A survey from the East Carolina University Center for Survey Research, fielded August 31 to September 3 among 675 likely voters, put Democrat Roy Cooper at 51.7 percent and Republican Michael Whatley at 43.6 percent, with 0.9 percent for other candidates. That is a Cooper lead of about eight...

One new survey landed in Tennessee's 9th District. Hart Research Associates, polling 400 likely voters for Tennessee Rise PAC and Three Star PAC between September 1 and September 3, put Republican Brent Taylor at 48 percent and Democrat Justin J. Pearson at 44 percent. The poll does not report a...

Our model now gives Democrat Troy Jackson a 61 in 100 chance of winning the Maine Senate race against Republican incumbent Susan Collins. A week ago, in our run of September 3, it gave him 87 percent. That is a move of 25.5 points of win probability toward Collins over seven days, the largest...

Two new YouGov surveys of Maine, both fielded September 2-8, show a close contest between Republican Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson. Among 1,335 likely voters, Jackson takes 48 percent to Collins's 44 percent. Among 1,378 registered voters from the same field period, Jackson leads 46...

Three new surveys of the North Carolina Senate race, all conducted by YouGov for Elon University and fielded August 21-31, put Democrat Roy Cooper ahead of Republican Michael Whatley. Among 565 likely voters, Cooper led 49 percent to 38 percent. Among 677 registered voters, it was 49 to 36. Among...

Fifty-four days out, our model gives Democrats a 42 in 100 chance of winning Senate control and Republicans a 57 percent chance. The mean Democratic Senate seat count in our simulations is 49.8. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a...

A YouGov poll sponsored by Univision, fielded August 27 to September 4 among 1,000 registered voters, puts Democrat James Talarico at 48 percent and Republican Ken Paxton at 43 percent in the open Texas Senate race.

Our model now gives Talarico a 68 in 100 chance of winning the seat, with a mean...

A CNN/SSRS survey of 880 likely voters in Maine, fielded August 31 to September 6, put Democrat Troy Jackson at 48 percent and Republican Susan Collins at 45 percent. The poll does not carry a margin of error in our payload, and a three-point gap on that sample is close enough that it is better...

A CNN/SSRS survey of 843 likely voters in Michigan, fielded August 31 to September 6, put Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 47 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 44 percent. That is a three-point gap on a sample of that size, which is close.

Our forecast is unchanged. The model gives El-Sayed a 69...

The only new number in Alabama's 2nd District has the race even. A Tulchin Research survey of likely voters, sponsored by House Majority PAC and fielded August 24-31, put Republican Rhett Marques at 47 percent and Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures at 47 percent. No margin of error was reported with...

An Impact Research survey of likely voters in Florida's 22nd District, sponsored by House Majority PAC and fielded August 24-31, has Democrat Pia Dandiya at 46 percent and Republican Casey Askar at 44 percent. Two points is a close race, not a lead. The poll was conducted for a partisan sponsor,...

A Global Strategy Group survey of 600 likely voters in Kentucky, fielded August 24-27, put Republican Andy Barr at 49 percent and Democrat Charles Booker at 40 percent. That is the only new poll in this race in our data.

Our forecast did not move. It gives Booker a 2 in 100 chance of winning the...

With 55 days to the November 3 election, our model gives Democrats a 93 in 100 chance of winning a House majority, against 7 percent for Republicans. The mean Democratic outcome in our simulations is 238.8 seats; 218 are needed for control. The Senate runs the other way. Our numbers as of 6:32 AM...

A Global Strategy Group survey of 800 likely voters in Iowa, fielded August 27-31, puts Democrat Josh Turek at 46 percent and Republican Ashley Hinson at 42 percent, with 6 percent for other candidates. No margin of error is reported in what we have, so we treat the four-point gap as a close race...

A Glengariff Group survey of 600 likely voters in Michigan, sponsored by the Detroit News and WDIV-TV and fielded August 31 to September 3, put Republican Mike Rogers at 45.8 percent and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 44.4 percent. The gap is 1.4 points. On the numbers in the poll, the race is...

Two new surveys of the Minnesota Senate race from TIPP Insights, sponsored by the League of American Workers and fielded August 31 to September 2, both show a close contest. Among 1,192 likely voters, the Democrat took 43.96 percent to the Republican's 41.86, with 2.99 percent for an independent...

A Peak Insights survey of 600 likely voters in Montana, fielded August 23-25, puts Republican Kurt Alme at 44 percent, independent Seth Bodnar at 22 percent, Democrat Alani Bankhead at 19 percent and other candidates at 2 percent.

Our forecast is where it was. The model gives the Republican a 99...

One new poll of Georgia's 7th District landed since our last run. A 20/20 Insight survey of 445 likely voters, fielded August 20-26 and reported by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, put Republican incumbent Rich McCormick at 46 percent and Democrat Anthony Kozycki at 43 percent. On a sample that...

An Impact Research survey of 500 likely voters in New York's 21st District, fielded August 30 to September 2, put Republican Anthony Constantino at 47 percent and Democrat Blake Gendebien at 44 percent. On a sample that size, a three-point gap is close enough that the poll does not establish a...

The only poll in NV-2 in our file is a Strategies 360 survey of 400 likely voters, fielded August 22-26, that put Republican Dave Flippo at 45 percent and Democrat Teresa Benitez-Thompson at 42 percent, with 7 percent for other candidates. A three-point gap on a sample that size is well inside...

Fifty-six days from the November 3 election, our model gives Democrats a 93 in 100 chance of winning House control and a 42% chance of a Senate majority. Republicans are at 6% in the House and 57% in the Senate. The mean outcome in our House simulations is 239 Democratic seats against the 218...

Our model now gives Democrat Adam Hamilton a 4 in 100 chance of winning the Kansas Senate race, down from 15% in our September 1 run. That is a drop of 10.3 points of Democratic win probability over seven days, all of it toward Republican incumbent Roger Marshall, who is now at 96%.

The mean...

Our model now gives Sherrod Brown a 41 in 100 chance of winning the Ohio Senate special election, against 59 percent for Republican Jon Husted, the incumbent. That is a shift of 14.5 points of Democratic win probability since our run on August 31, when Brown stood at 56 percent and Husted at 44...

Fifty-seven days from the November 3 election, our model gives Democrats a 93 in 100 chance of winning a House majority and Republicans a 7% chance. The mean Democratic seat count is 239.1, against the 218 needed for control. In the Senate, our numbers as of 6:32 AM ET Monday put Democratic...

Our model now gives Josh Turek, the Democrat, a 35 in 100 chance of winning Iowa's open Senate seat, down from 66% in our August 30 run. That is a shift of 31 points toward the Republican, Ashley Hinson, over seven days.

The mean margin moved with it. Our August 30 run had the race at D+2.6 on...

Fifty-eight days out, our model gives Democrats a 93 in 100 chance of winning a House majority, against 6% for Republicans, with a mean of 239.4 Democratic seats and 218 needed for control. One caveat belongs with that number: our simulation draws error nationally, by census division, by state...

Our model now gives Democrat Brian Poindexter a 29 in 100 chance in Ohio's 7th District, against 71% for Republican Max Miller. A week earlier, on August 30, the same model had the district at 50-50. That is a shift of 20.2 points of Democratic win probability in seven days, all of it toward...

Fifty-nine days from the November 3 election, our model gives Democrats a 44 in 100 chance of winning a Senate majority and Republicans a 55 percent chance. The mean Democratic seat total across our simulations is 50.0. Democrats need 51 seats for control; Republicans need 50, because the vice...

A new poll of Florida's 16th District finds the race close. SEA Polling surveyed 400 likely voters from August 25 to 29 and had Democrat Kelly Kirschner at 40 percent and Republican Sydney Gruters at 39 percent — a one-point gap in a sample that size, which is to say no measurable lead for either...

One new survey in Florida's 9th District shows a close race. SEA Polling, fielded August 24-30 among 400 likely voters and published by floridapolitics.com, has Republican Dan Green and Democratic incumbent Darren Soto tied at 41 percent each.

Our forecast did not move on it. We give Soto a 99...

One new poll in California's 48th District shows a close race. SurveyUSA, polling for KGTV-TV and the San Diego Union-Tribune, surveyed 522 likely voters from August 27 to September 1 and found Democrat Marni von Wilpert at 45 percent and Republican Jim Desmond at 42 percent. Three points, in a...

Sixty days out, our model gives Democrats a 45 in 100 chance of winning Senate control, against 54 percent for Republicans. The mean Democratic seat total in our simulations is 50.0. Democrats need 51 seats for control and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a...

Our forecast in Arizona's 2nd District has moved toward the Democrat. As of our September 4 run, the model gives Jonathan Nez a 50 in 100 chance against Republican incumbent Eli Crane. Our run on August 28 put the figure at 42%. That is a move of 8.1 points of Democratic win probability over...

A Global Strategy Group survey of 800 likely voters in Kansas, fielded August 12-16 and sponsored by the People Over Politics Action Fund, put Adam Hamilton at 44 percent and Roger Marshall at 43 percent, with 5 percent for other candidates. That is a close race; the gap is one point, and the...

An Emerson College survey for Nexstar, of 750 likely voters fielded August 31 to September 1, puts Republican Ashley Hinson at 49.5 percent and Democrat Josh Turek at 45.1 percent in Iowa's open Senate race. Less than a point went to other candidates.

Our forecast now gives Turek a 38 in 100...

Sixty-one days before the November 3 election, our model gives Democrats a 47 in 100 chance of winning Senate control and Republicans a 53% chance, as of 6:32 AM ET. The mean Democratic Senate outcome in our simulations is 50.1 seats. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority; Republicans need 50,...

One new poll has landed in the New Hampshire Senate race, and it did not move our numbers. Our model gives Chris Pappas, the Democrat, an 81 in 100 chance of winning the open seat, with a mean margin of D+9.9 and a 5th-to-95th-percentile range running from R+8.6 to D+28.4. The previous run, at...

An Alaska Survey Research poll of 1,495 likely voters, fielded August 20-23, put Mary Peltola at 50.6 percent and Dan Sullivan at 49.4 percent. That 1.2-point gap is small enough to describe the race only as close.

Our forecast did not respond. It gives Peltola a 24 in 100 chance and Sullivan 76...

Our forecast in Texas's 15th District moved toward the Republican incumbent over the past week. On August 26 our model gave Bobby Pulido a 56% chance; as of midday September 2 it gives him a 38 in 100 chance, with Monica De La Cruz at 62%. That is a shift of 18 points of Democratic win...

A GBAO survey of 500 likely voters in Arizona's 2nd District, fielded August 21-24 and reported by Politico, put Republican Eli Crane at 46 percent and Democrat Jonathan Nez at 44 percent. Two points on a sample that size is not a measurable advantage for either candidate. The reading is a close...

A survey by Normington, Petts & Associates for House Majority PAC, fielded August 27-31 among likely voters, put Republican Carlos De La Cruz at 45 percent and Democrat Johnny Garcia at 44 percent in Texas's 35th District. No sample size or margin of error accompanies the numbers in our data, and...

A new Overton Insights survey of 1,167 likely voters in Texas, sponsored by the Texas Public Policy Foundation and fielded August 24-26, puts Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico level at 50 percent each.

Our model now gives Talarico a 64 in 100 chance of winning the open Texas...

Two new Michigan Senate polls from Abacus Data, both fielded August 26-28, show Democrat Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Republican Mike Rogers. Among 332 likely voters, El-Sayed took 47 percent to Rogers's 42. Among 500 registered voters, the split was 41-35. Neither poll reports a margin of error, and...

Our model gives Democrats a 93 percent chance of winning a House majority, with a mean of 240 seats against the 218 needed for control. The Senate is close to even: a 49 in 100 chance for Democrats and 50 percent for Republicans, on a mean of 50.2 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for...

Two new surveys of Florida's 13th District, both from Hart Research Associates and both sponsored by House Majority PAC, were fielded August 25-27 among likely voters. One, which included an unnamed independent option at 7 percent, put Democrat Leela Gray at 44 percent and Republican incumbent...

Two new surveys of the Michigan Senate race put Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Mike Rogers by mid-single digits. The Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov poll of 779 likely voters, fielded August 10-20, had El-Sayed at 50 percent and Rogers at 45. The same...

Our model now gives Democratic incumbent Ben Ray Lujan a 99 in 100 chance of winning the New Mexico Senate race. In the previous run, on August 25 at 10:03 a.m. ET, it gave him 90 percent. That is a move of nine points toward the Democrat over seven days.

The projected margin did not move with...

Sixty-three days from the November 3 election, our model gives Democrats a 93 percent chance of winning a House majority and Republicans 6 percent. The mean Democratic seat count is 239.9, against the 218 seats needed for control. Our simulation draws correlated error at four levels — national,...

Our model now gives Adam Hamilton, the Democrat, a 14 in 100 chance of winning the Kansas Senate race, up from 6% in our run of August 25. That is a shift of 8.3 points of Democratic win probability over seven days. Roger Marshall, the Republican incumbent, is at 86%.

No new Kansas polling...

A Tavern Research survey of 551 likely voters in Florida's 22nd District, fielded August 10-12, put Democrat Pia Dandiya and Republican Casey Askar at 50 percent each. The race is tied in that poll.

Our model now gives Dandiya a 95 in 100 chance of winning the seat, against 5 percent for Askar....

Two St. Anselm surveys of New Hampshire's 2nd District now sit in our average. The more recent, fielded August 17-18 among 701 likely voters, had the Democrat at 50 percent and the Republican at 35. The older one, fielded March 16-18 among 739 registered voters, had the Democrat at 48 and the...

A Quantus Insights survey of 509 likely voters in Ohio's 1st District, fielded August 21-24, puts Democratic incumbent Greg Landsman at 47.9 percent and Republican Eric Conroy at 44.6 percent. The gap is small enough on that sample size that the poll describes a close race rather than a clear...

Three matchups from a Public Policy Polling survey of 675 registered voters in Kentucky's 6th District, fielded April 24-25, 2026, all came in close. Republican Ralph Alvarado and Democrat Zach Dembo tied at 37 percent in the head-to-head. Alvarado took 37 percent to 36 percent for an unnamed...

The only public polling in North Carolina's 3rd District is a Tulchin Research survey sponsored by House Majority PAC, fielded July 27 to August 2 among likely voters. It found Republican Rep. Greg Murphy at 44 percent and Democrat Raymond Smith Jr. at 41 percent. No sample size or margin of...

A Z to A Research survey of 482 likely voters in Maryland's 1st District, fielded July 23-27 and posted on x.com, gives Republican incumbent Andy Harris 52 percent and Democrat Dan Schwartz 39 percent.

That is a 13-point margin, and it lands almost exactly on top of what our model already had....

The newest survey of Alaska's at-large district has Republican Rep. Nick Begich III at 50.6 percent, independent Bill Hill at 39.1 percent and the Democratic line at 4.6 percent. That is Alaska Survey Research, which polled 1,872 likely voters August 20-23.

The same pollster's earlier survey of...

Two Global Strategy Group surveys of Pennsylvania's 1st District have entered our average, and both show Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick ahead of Democrat Bob Harvie. The more recent, of 500 likely voters fielded August 5-9, had Fitzpatrick at 47 percent and Harvie at 43. An earlier one, of 400...

A Public Policy Polling survey of 517 registered voters in North Carolina's 7th District, fielded August 19-20, put Republican incumbent David Rouzer at 45 percent and Democrat Kim Hardy at 39 percent, with 3 percent for other candidates. That is the same six-point gap this site reported from two...

Three new entries in our Kentucky Senate database all come from the same Public Policy Polling survey of 650 registered voters, fielded December 18-19, 2025. In the named matchup, Republican Andy Barr led Democrat Charles Booker 49 percent to 38 percent. Tested against an unnamed Republican,...

An Impact Research survey for the SPLC Action Fund, fielded April 8-12 among 500 likely voters, found Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith at 42 percent, Democrat Scott Colom at 39 percent and independent Ty Pinkins at 6 percent. A three-point gap on a sample that size is a close result, not a measured...

The newly logged polling in Minnesota's open Senate race is not fresh, and it does not say anything the earlier numbers did not. The most recent of the group, an Impact Research survey of 808 likely voters fielded May 26-28, 2026, had the Democrat at 51 percent and the Republican at 44. An...

The most recent numbers in the Florida Senate special election come from the University of North Florida, which surveyed 848 likely voters July 8-17 and tested more than one matchup. In one, Republican Ashley Moody led an unnamed Democrat 50.0 percent to 41.6 percent. In the other, Moody led 49.9...

The most recent public polling of the Georgia Senate race has Jon Ossoff ahead of Mike Collins. A Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research survey for AARP of 1,060 likely voters, fielded July 13-16, put Ossoff at 52 percent and Collins at 43. An Echelon Insights poll for NetChoice of 407 likely voters,...

A survey from yes. every kid. foundation., fielded July 8-11 among 601 likely voters, puts Republican Barry Moore at 47 percent and Democrat Everett Wess at 32 percent in Alabama's open Senate race.

The poll changed almost nothing in our forecast. Our model now gives Moore a 100 in 100 chance,...

The most recent survey in our Alaska file is from Alaska Survey Research, fielded August 2-5 among 1,371 likely voters. It put Mary Peltola at 50.8% and Dan Sullivan at 49.2% — a gap well inside sampling error, and so a close race rather than a lead for either candidate. A New York Times/Siena...

Two new surveys of the Kansas Senate race put Republican Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton within a few points of each other. Public Policy Polling, on a survey of registered voters fielded August 7-8 and sponsored by Senate Majority PAC, had Marshall at 46 percent and Hamilton at 45....

A Hart Research Associates survey of 800 likely voters for Forward Montana, fielded August 1-4, put Republican Kurt Alme at 45 percent in the three-way race for Montana's open Senate seat, independent Seth Bodnar at 30 percent, Democrat Alani Bankhead at 15 percent and other candidates at 6...

The two most recent polls of Idaho's Senate race point in different directions. A Peak Insights survey of 500 likely voters, fielded August 11-13, put Republican incumbent Jim Risch at 52 percent, with 9 percent for an independent and 2 percent for other candidates. A Bullfinch Group survey of...

Two Arkansas Senate polls are in our average, and they do not agree. A J.L. Partners survey of 803 likely voters, fielded August 14-18, put Republican Tom Cotton at 51 percent and Democrat Hallie Shoffner at 35, with 4 percent for other candidates. A 2040 Strategy Group poll of 586 likely voters,...

Two new surveys of the Oklahoma Senate race from Cole Hargrave, each of 500 registered voters fielded August 3-6, put Republican Kevin Hern well clear of the unnamed Democrat. One has Hern at 48 percent to 27 percent for the Democrat, with 5 percent for an independent and 2 percent for other...

A new Nebraska Senate poll from Impact Research, fielded August 9-13 among 600 likely voters and reported by omaha.com, put Republican Pete Ricketts at 47 percent and the non-Republican line at 47 percent. The race is even in that survey.

Our model gives Ricketts a 93 in 100 chance of winning...

Our model now puts the Massachusetts Senate race at a mean margin of D+35.6, with a 5th-to-95th percentile range of D+17.1 to D+54.0. The run before it, at 4:03 PM ET on Sunday, had the mean at D+28.9 in a narrower band of D+18.1 to D+39.6. The probability did not move: Ed Markey's chance of...

A University of New Hampshire survey of 722 likely voters in Rhode Island, fielded August 20-24, put Democratic incumbent Jack Reed at 51 percent and Republican Raymond McKay at 31 percent, with 4 percent for an independent. An earlier University of New Hampshire poll of 556 likely voters,...

Our model now gives Roy Cooper, the Democrat, an 80 in 100 chance of winning North Carolina's open Senate seat. A week ago, in the run dated Aug. 24, it gave him 88 percent. That is a move of eight points toward the Republican, Michael Whatley, over seven days.

The projected margin moved with...

The polling in the Texas Senate race has settled into a narrow band, and our forecast moved only slightly with it. Our model now gives James Talarico a 68 in 100 chance of winning the open seat, up from 66 percent in the run at 4:03 PM ET. Our mean margin is D+3.0, against D+2.7 before. The...

Our model now gives Democrat Annie Andrews a 9 in 100 chance in the South Carolina Senate race, down from 18% in our run of August 24. That is a drop of 8.2 points of Democratic win probability over seven days, all of it toward Republican incumbent Darline Graham, who is now at 91%.

The...

The most recent survey of the South Dakota Senate race has it even. Impact Research polled 500 likely voters August 13-17 and found Republican incumbent Mike Rounds at 44 percent and independent Brian Bengs at 44 percent.

The other numbers in front of us are older and point the other way. Public...

Our model now gives Mark Warner, the Democratic incumbent, a 90 in 100 chance of winning the Virginia Senate race, and Republican Bert Mizusawa a 10% chance. A week ago, in our run of August 24, the same numbers were 99% and 1%. That is a move of 8.8 points of Democratic win probability toward...

The most recent survey of the open Michigan Senate race, an EPIC-MRA poll of 600 likely voters fielded August 22-28, put Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 47 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 43 percent. A four-point gap on a sample that size is small enough to be consistent with a tied race, so the...

Our model now gives Abdul El-Sayed, the Democrat, a 69 in 100 chance of winning Michigan's open Senate seat, against 31 percent for the Republican, Mike Rogers. A week ago, in our August 24 run, the same estimate was 57 percent. That is a shift of 11.5 points of Democratic win probability over...

The most recent survey of the Iowa Senate race, from Wedgewood Polls, put Republican Ashley Hinson at 50 percent and Democrat Josh Turek at 48 percent among 600 likely voters fielded August 27-29. That is a close race.

Our forecast now gives Hinson a 59 percent chance of winning the open seat...

An Abacus Data survey of 500 registered voters, fielded August 26-28, put Sherrod Brown at 40 percent and Jon Husted at 33 percent, with more than a quarter of respondents landing on neither name. It is the most recent poll of the Ohio Senate special election in our database.

Our model now gives...

Our model now gives Chris Pappas an 81 in 100 chance in the New Hampshire Senate race, down from 95% in our run of August 24 at 4:30 p.m. ET. That is a drop of 14.3 points of Democratic win probability over seven days, toward Republican Scott Brown, whose chance we put at 19%.

The mean margin...

Abacus Data released two readings of the Maine Senate race from the same August 26-28 field period, and they do not agree. Among 327 likely voters, Democrat Troy Jackson took 50 percent to Republican Susan Collins's 42 percent. Among 499 registered voters, the two were level at 40 percent...

A GQR survey of 400 likely voters in Pennsylvania's 1st District, fielded August 19-23, put Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick at 49 percent and Democrat Bob Harvie at 48 percent. On a sample that size, a one-point separation is not a lead. The race is close.

Our model now gives Harvie a 37...

A Global Strategy Group survey of 600 likely voters in Michigan's 10th District, fielded August 10-13, put Republican Michael Bouchard Jr. and Democrat Christina Hines at 45 percent each.

Our forecast now gives Hines a 61 in 100 chance of winning the seat, with a mean margin of D+2.7. That is a...

One new survey is on the board in North Carolina's 3rd District. Tulchin Research, polling 600 likely voters from July 27 to August 2, put Republican Rep. Greg Murphy at 44 percent and Democrat Raymond Smith Jr. at 41 percent. The payload lists no margin of error for the survey; at that sample...

One new survey in Kentucky's 6th District shows a close race. Lake Research Partners, polling 400 likely voters from August 17 to 23, had Democrat Zach Dembo at 45% and Republican Ralph Alvarado at 44%. On a sample that size, a one-point gap is not a lead; the poll says the two candidates are...

Sixty-four days out, our generic ballot average is D+6.7, drawn from 22 polls fielded within the last 45 days. That is a shade wider than the D+6.6 we carried yesterday.

Our Senate numbers give Democrats a 52 percent chance of winning a majority and Republicans 48 percent, with a mean of 50.3...

An Abacus Data survey of 2,500 likely voters, fielded August 29, has Democrat Josh Turek at 54 percent and Republican Ashley Hinson at 45 percent in Iowa's open Senate race.

That is the largest lead either candidate has held in the polling our model has taken in for this race, and it moved the...

Our model gave Democrat Josh Turek a 23 percent chance in Iowa's open Senate race in its August 23 run. As of Sunday night it gives him a 65 in 100 chance against Republican Ashley Hinson, a shift of 41.5 points toward the Democrat over seven days. The projected margin moved with it, from R+4.8...

A Wedgewood Polls survey of 600 likely voters, fielded August 27-29, put Republican Ashley Hinson at 50 percent and Democrat Josh Turek at 48 percent in Iowa's open Senate race. A two-point gap on that sample size is not a measurable lead. The poll describes a close race and nothing more precise...

An Abacus Data survey of 2,500 likely voters, fielded August 29, has the Republican line at 55% and Democrat Annie Andrews at 42% in the South Carolina Senate race. That is a 13-point Republican advantage, and it is the widest of the recent numbers this site has covered.

Our forecast did not...

Our model gives Democrats a 43 in 100 chance of winning control of the Senate as of 6:30 AM ET Sunday, with Republicans at 56 percent. The mean outcome across our simulations is 49.9 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a...

Our model now gives Democrat Brian Poindexter a 50 in 100 chance in Ohio's 7th District, against Republican incumbent Max Miller. That is down 9.5 points of Democratic win probability from the run of August 23, when the estimate stood at 59 percent.

The projected margin moved with it. A week ago...

Our model now gives Democrat James Talarico a 66 in 100 chance of winning the open Texas Senate seat, up from 58% in our run of August 23. That is a move of 8.1 points of win probability toward the Democrat over seven days. Ken Paxton's estimated chance is 34%.

The underlying margin moved less....

Two new EPIC-MRA surveys of the Michigan Senate race, each of 600 likely voters and each fielded August 22-28, 2026, put Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 50 percent to Republican Mike Rogers's 45 in one, and at 47 to 43 in the other. Both point the same way, and neither is far from the other.

Our...

Our model gives Democrats a 94 in 100 chance of winning a House majority and a 43 percent chance of winning Senate control as of 6:30 AM ET on August 29. The mean House outcome in our simulations is 241.3 Democratic seats against the 218 needed for a majority. The Senate is closer to even in...

An Impact Research survey of 700 likely voters in South Carolina, fielded August 18-24, put Democrat Annie Andrews at 41 percent and the Republican at 41 percent, with 5 percent for other candidates. No margin of error is given in the poll as we have it.

Our forecast did not follow the poll. Our...

A University of New Hampshire survey of 750 likely voters in Rhode Island, fielded August 20-24, puts Democratic incumbent Jack Reed at 51 percent and Republican Raymond McKay at 31 percent. That is a 20-point margin.

Our model gives Reed a greater than 99 percent chance of winning the seat, and...

Public Policy Polling surveyed 517 likely voters in North Carolina's 7th District on August 19-20 and released two versions of the same question. The first, which included an option for other candidates, put Republican incumbent David Rouzer at 45 percent and Democrat Kim Hardy at 39, with 3...

Two new Data for Progress surveys of the Mississippi Senate race, both of 1,018 likely voters fielded August 5-15, put Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith six points ahead of Democrat Scott Colom. The three-way version, which included independent Ty Pinkins, had Hyde-Smith at 44 percent, Colom at 38...

An Impact Research survey of 500 likely voters in South Dakota, fielded August 13-17, put Republican incumbent Mike Rounds and independent Brian Bengs level at 44 percent each.

Our model absorbed the number and moved, but not far. Our current estimate of the margin is R+19.6, with a...

Our generic ballot average stands at D+6.6, drawn from 23 polls fielded over the past 45 days, as of 6:30 AM ET on August 28.

In the Senate, our model gives Democrats a 45 percent chance of winning control and Republicans 55 percent. The mean outcome in our simulations is 49.9 Democratic seats....

Our model now gives Troy Jackson, the Democrat, a 90 in 100 chance of winning the Maine Senate race against Republican incumbent Susan Collins. A week earlier, in our August 21 run, the figure was 82 percent. That is a move of 8.1 points of Democratic win probability over seven days.

The mean...

Our model now gives Sherrod Brown, the Democrat, a 45 in 100 chance of winning the Ohio Senate special election, and Republican Jon Husted, the incumbent, a 55 percent chance. A week ago, in our run dated August 21, those figures were reversed: Brown 59 percent, Husted 41 percent. That is a move...

Our model now gives Jonathan Nez, the Democrat, a 42 in 100 chance of winning Arizona's 2nd District, down from 51% in our August 20 run. That is a move of 9.5 points of Democratic win probability across seven days, toward the Republican incumbent, Eli Crane.

The mean margin moved with it. Our...

A Peak Insights survey of 400 likely voters in Arizona's 2nd District, fielded August 17-20, put Republican incumbent Eli Crane at 53 percent and Democrat Jonathan Nez at 42 percent.

That is the only new number in this race, and it moved our forecast. Our model now gives Nez a 42 in 100 chance...

A Texas Public Opinion Research survey of 1,000 likely voters, fielded August 21-24, puts Democrat James Talarico at 48 percent and Republican Ken Paxton at 42 percent in the Texas Senate race. It is the only new poll in this run.

Our model now gives Talarico a 65 in 100 chance of winning the...

Our model gives Democrats a 93 percent chance of winning a House majority this morning and Republicans 6 percent, with a mean of 241.1 Democratic seats against the 218 needed for control. In the Senate the split runs the other way: Republicans 56 percent, Democrats 44 in 100, on a mean of 49.9...

A University of New Hampshire survey of 881 likely voters in Massachusetts, fielded August 20-24, put Democratic incumbent Ed Markey at 49 percent and Republican John Deaton at 30 percent. That is a 19-point lead, with about a fifth of the sample not landing on either candidate.

Our model's read...

Two Quantus Insights surveys of 509 likely voters in Ohio's 1st District, both fielded August 21-24, show a close race. One has Democratic incumbent Greg Landsman at 47 percent and Republican Eric Conroy at 43. The other has Landsman at 48 and Conroy at 45.

Our model has now absorbed them, and...

A new poll of the South Carolina Senate race shows it even. Impact Research, surveying 800 likely voters between August 18 and 24, put Democrat Annie Andrews at 41 percent and the Republican at 41 percent. It is the only new poll in this race in our payload.

Our forecast did not move. The model...

A University of New Hampshire survey of 1,878 likely voters, fielded August 20-24, puts Democrat Chris Pappas at 45 percent and Republican Scott Brown at 40 percent in the race for New Hampshire's open Senate seat.

Our model now gives Pappas a 91 in 100 chance of winning the seat, with a mean...

Three new Quantus Insights readings in Ohio's 1st District, all from surveys of 509 likely voters fielded August 21-24, show a close race. One has Democratic incumbent Greg Landsman at 46.5% and Republican Eric Conroy at 42.7%. A second has Landsman at 47.9% and Conroy at 44.6%. A third, with no...

A Public Policy Research/Texas Southern University survey of 700 likely voters in Texas' 34th District, fielded August 18-22, put Democratic incumbent Vicente Gonzalez at 45 percent and Republican Eric Flores at 42 percent. That is a three-point gap with 13 percent unaccounted for, and it is best...

A Public Policy Research/Texas Southern University survey of 600 likely voters in Texas's 28th District, fielded August 18-22, put Democratic incumbent Henry Cuellar at 45% and Republican Tano Tijerina at 34%. That is an 11-point margin, with about a fifth of respondents landing somewhere other...

One new poll is on the board in Texas's 15th District. A Public Policy Research/Texas Southern University survey of 700 likely voters, fielded August 18-22, put Democrat Bobby Pulido at 50 percent and Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz at 45 percent. It is the only poll of this race in our current...

A Suffolk University survey of 500 likely voters in Iowa, fielded August 20-23, put Republican Ashley Hinson at 45 percent and Democrat Josh Turek at 41 percent. That is a four-point gap on a sample of that size, which is close enough that the poll does not establish who is ahead. Roughly one in...

An Impact Research survey of 600 likely voters in Nebraska, fielded August 9-13, put Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts and independent Dan Osborn level at 47 percent each.

Our model moved, but not far. The new run gives Ricketts a 98 percent chance of winning the seat, down from 99 percent in the...

Our forecast in Texas's 15th District moved toward Democrat Bobby Pulido over the past week. On August 19, our model gave him a 36% chance against Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz. As of this morning, that is 45 in 100 — a gain of 8.7 points of win probability over seven days.

One poll...

Our model gives Democrats a 92 in 100 chance of winning a House majority as of 6:30 AM ET on August 26, with a mean of 240.7 Democratic seats against the 218 needed for control. That is down from the 95 percent we published on August 24. The Senate is closer: 44 percent for the Democrats, 56...

A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey of 1,200 registered voters, fielded August 5-13, puts Democrat James Talarico at 42% and Republican Ken Paxton at 39%. The three-point gap is narrow enough that the poll is best read as a close race rather than a lead, and roughly a fifth of...

Seventy days out, our model gives Democrats a 94 in 100 chance of winning a House majority, against 6 percent for Republicans. The mean outcome in our simulations is 241.1 Democratic seats, with 218 needed for control. One caveat on that figure is ours to make: our House simulation draws error...

Our model's numbers for Alaska's at-large House district changed shape over the past week. In the run of August 18, it gave a Democrat a 72 percent chance and Republican incumbent Nick Begich III 28 percent. In the run of August 25, the Democratic chance is zero, independent Bill Hill has a 63 in...

Our model now gives Mary Peltola a 25 in 100 chance of winning the Alaska Senate race, down from 35% in our run of August 17. That is a drop of 10.1 points of Democratic win probability over seven days, all of it toward Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan.

The estimated margin moved with it. Our...

Our model gives Democrats a 95 in 100 chance of winning House control this morning, with a mean of 242.4 seats against the 218 needed. Republicans are at 5 percent. That figure carries a caveat of our own making: our simulation draws error at the national, census-division, state and district...

Our model gives Democrats a 94 in 100 chance of winning House control, against 6 percent for Republicans, with a mean of 242.5 Democratic seats and 218 needed for a majority. The Senate is closer to even and tilted the other way: Democrats 47 percent, Republicans 53 percent, on a mean of 50.1...

Our model now gives the Democrat a 59 in 100 chance in Ohio's 7th Congressional District, down from 68% in our run of August 16. That is a drop of 8.6 points of Democratic win probability over six days.

The expected margin moved with it. Our model's mean margin in the district is now D+2.5,...

Our model, as of 6:30 a.m. ET on August 22, gives Democrats a 94 in 100 chance of winning a House majority and a 47 percent chance of winning control of the Senate. The mean House outcome is 242.6 Democratic seats against the 218 needed for a majority. The mean Senate outcome is 50.2 Democratic...

One new poll of Florida's 22nd District has the race even. Tavern Research surveyed 551 likely voters on August 10-12 and found the Republican and the Democrat at 50 percent each.

Our forecast did not follow it. As of 12:03 PM ET on August 21, our model gives the Democrat a 97 in 100 chance in...

Two new surveys of the open Oklahoma Senate race point the same direction. CHS & Associates, polling 500 registered voters August 3-6, had Republican Kevin Hern at 48 percent and the Democrat at 27 percent. A second CHS & Associates survey of 500 registered voters over the same August 3-6 window...

A Deep Root Analytics survey of 597 registered voters in Minnesota, fielded August 17-18, put the Democrat at 50 percent and the Republican at 45 percent. It is the only new poll in this race in our payload.

Our model now gives the Democrat an 87 in 100 chance in the Minnesota Senate race, with...

Two new surveys from High Point University/YouGov, both fielded August 3-12, put Democrat Roy Cooper ahead of Republican Michael Whatley in North Carolina's open Senate race. Among 800 registered voters, Cooper drew 48 percent to Whatley's 41 percent. Among a narrower sample of 660 likely voters,...

Seventy-four days from the November 3 election, our model gives Democrats a 48 percent chance of winning Senate control and a 93 percent chance of winning a House majority, as of 6:30 AM ET on August 21. Democrats need 51 Senate seats for control and Republicans need 50, because the vice...

Our model now gives Troy Jackson, the Democrat, an 83 in 100 chance of winning the Maine Senate race against Susan Collins, the Republican incumbent. That is up 8.2 points from the 75% our previous run gave him on August 16 at 10:15 p.m. ET, a span of four days.

The expected margin moved with...

A Change Research survey of 1,213 likely voters in Idaho, fielded July 28-30, put Republican Sen. Jim Risch at 43 percent, independent Todd Achilles at 19 percent and an unnamed Democrat at 13 percent. Roughly a quarter of respondents fell outside those three options.

The poll did not change our...

Our model now gives Sherrod Brown a 58 in 100 chance of winning the Ohio Senate special election, and Jon Husted, the Republican incumbent, a 42 percent chance. On our previous run, at 10:15 p.m. ET on August 16, the same race stood at 67 percent for Brown and 33 percent for Husted. That is a...

A Hendrix College survey of 1,112 likely voters in Arkansas' 2nd District, fielded August 12-13, put the Democratic candidate at 48% and the Republican at 44%. The poll is the only new number in this race, and it is closer than what our model had been carrying.

Our forecast moved accordingly....

Our forecast in Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District moved 12.3 points toward the Democrat over four days. On August 16 our model gave the Democrat a 21% chance; as of August 20 it gives the Democrat a 34 in 100 chance, with the Republican at 66%.

The expected margin moved with it. Our model now...

A Saint Anselm College survey of 701 likely voters in New Hampshire's 2nd District, fielded August 17-18, put the Democrat at 50 percent and the Republican at 35 percent.

That is close to what our model was already carrying. Our forecast gives the Democrat a 93 in 100 chance in the district,...

A Saint Anselm College survey of 1,411 likely voters, fielded August 17-18, put Democrat Chris Pappas at 49% and Republican Scott Brown at 37% in the race for New Hampshire's open Senate seat.

The number confirmed rather than changed our read. Our model now gives Pappas a 95 in 100 chance of...

A Bullfinch Group survey of 608 likely voters in Idaho, fielded August 16-19, puts independent Todd Achilles at 38 percent and Republican Sen. Jim Risch at 33 percent. Neither candidate is close to a majority in that poll: about 29 percent of respondents are recorded for neither man. No margin of...

One new poll has landed in Michigan's 7th District. A Global Strategy Group survey of 500 likely voters, fielded August 11-13, put the Democrat at 49 percent and the Republican at 47 percent. A two-point gap on a sample that size is close, and the poll does not establish who is ahead.

Our...

A J.L. Partners survey of 500 likely voters in New York's 21st District, fielded August 15-17, put the Republican at 50 percent and the Democrat at 40 percent.

That is close to what our model already expected. Our forecast now gives the Republican an 84 percent chance in the district and the...

A Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research survey of 877 likely voters in Michigan, fielded August 9-11, put Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 48 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 47 percent. A one-point separation in a sample that size is not a lead. The race is close.

Our forecast did not move. The model...

Seventy-five days from the November 3 election, our model gives Democrats a 49 in 100 chance of winning Senate control and Republicans a 51 percent chance, as of 6:30 AM ET on August 20. The mean Democratic seat total in our simulations is 50.2. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority; Republicans...

A Data for Progress survey of 575 likely voters in Alaska, fielded July 28 to August 4, has Democrat Mary Peltola at 50 percent and Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan at 45 percent.

Our forecast did not follow the poll. The model now gives Peltola a 29 in 100 chance of winning the seat, with Sullivan...

A Hendrix College survey of 1,217 likely voters in Arkansas, fielded August 11-12, put Democrat Hallie Shoffner at 47 percent and Republican Sen. Tom Cotton at 44 percent. The poll reports no margin of error in what we have, so the three-point gap is best read as a close result rather than a...

Our model now gives Democrat Abdul El-Sayed a 58 in 100 chance of winning Michigan's open Senate seat, against 42% for Republican Mike Rogers. Three days ago, in our run of August 16 at 10:15 PM ET, the same estimate was 43%. That is a shift of 15.7 points of Democratic win probability over three...

A Susquehanna Polling & Research survey of 800 likely voters in Michigan, fielded August 11-17, puts Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 46 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 39 percent.

That is the only new number in the race, and it moved our forecast. Our model now gives El-Sayed a 58 in 100 chance...

A J.L. Partners survey of 803 likely voters in Arkansas, fielded August 14-18, put Republican Sen. Tom Cotton at 51% and Democrat Hallie Shoffner at 35%.

That 16-point margin is narrower than what our model had been carrying, and the model moved accordingly. Our current run has a mean margin of...

One new poll in Pennsylvania's 1st District has the Republican at 47 percent and the Democrat at 43 percent. It was conducted by Global Strategy Group among 500 likely voters, fielded August 5-9. With a sample that size, a four-point margin describes a close race rather than a settled one.

Our...

Seventy-six days out, our model gives Democrats a 48 percent chance of a Senate majority and Republicans 52 percent. The mean Democratic seat total in our simulations is 50.1, just short of the 51 seats Democrats need; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50...

A KTSP/SurveyUSA survey of 661 likely voters in Minnesota, fielded August 13-17, puts the Democrat at 46 percent and the Republican at 41 percent. The poll leaves about 13 percent of likely voters unaccounted for between the two parties. No margin of error is attached to the numbers we have, and...

Two new surveys of the Michigan Senate race, both from TIPP Insights and both fielded August 6-10, put Democrat Abdul El-Sayed slightly ahead of Republican Mike Rogers. Among 1,528 registered voters, El-Sayed took 43 percent to Rogers' 39 percent. Among 1,215 likely voters, the split was 45...

An InsiderAdvantage survey of 800 likely voters, fielded August 16-17, put Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff at 50% and Republican Mike Collins at 43%. That seven-point gap is close to where our average already had the race, and the update it produced was small.

Our model now gives Ossoff an 85 in...

One new poll of Virginia's 5th District has the race inside a few points. Expedition Strategies surveyed 602 likely voters from July 29 to August 1 and found the Republican at 47 percent and the Democrat at 44 percent. A three-point gap on that sample size is not a measurable lead, so the fair...

One new poll landed in Alaska's at-large district. A Data for Progress survey of 605 likely voters, fielded July 28 to August 4, put the Republican at 47 percent and an independent candidate at 37 percent. The poll as reported to us lists no Democratic option, so its 10-point gap does not...

A UMass Amherst/YouGov survey of 800 registered voters in Massachusetts, fielded August 5-12, puts Democratic incumbent Ed Markey at 51 percent and Republican John Deaton at 30 percent. That is a 21-point margin, with roughly a fifth of respondents not accounted for by either candidate.

The...

An Insider Advantage survey of 800 likely voters in Georgia, fielded August 16-17, put Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff at 50 percent and Republican Mike Collins at 43 percent.

Our model now gives Ossoff an 83 in 100 chance of winning the seat, with a mean margin of D+6.5 and a 5th-to-95th...

Seventy-seven days before the November 3 election, our average of 26 generic ballot polls taken over the past 45 days stands at D+6.7. As of 6:30 AM ET, our model gives Democrats a 47 percent chance of Senate control and Republicans 53 percent, with a mean of 50.1 Democratic seats. Democrats need...

Two University of New Hampshire surveys of 954 likely voters in Vermont's at-large district, each fielded July 15-20, put the Democrat at 63 percent and 25 percent for the Republican in one, and 64 to 25 in the other. That is a gap of 38 to 39 points.

Our forecast did not need much revision. The...

A Global Strategy Group survey of 500 likely voters in New York's 18th District, fielded July 23-26, put the Democrat at 53 percent and the Republican at 39 percent. That is a 14-point margin, and it is the only poll of the race in this payload.

Our forecast did not change in any way that...

Two new surveys of the Alaska Senate race both show Mary Peltola ahead of Dan Sullivan. A Data for Progress poll of 605 likely voters, fielded July 28 to August 4, has Peltola at 47 percent and Sullivan at 41 percent. A second ballot test from the same Data for Progress survey of 605 likely...

Our model now gives Democrat Mary Peltola a 34 in 100 chance of winning the Alaska Senate race against Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. That is up 10.8 points from the 23 percent estimate in our previous run, dated August 16 at 10:15 PM ET. The two runs are one day apart.

The expected margin...

A Hart Research survey of 401 likely voters in Ohio's 15th District, fielded August 6-9, put the Republican at 41 percent and the Democrat at 37 percent. On a sample that size, a four-point gap does not establish a lead. The race is close, and a sizable share of respondents picked neither...

Four new surveys of Idaho's Senate race disagree sharply on its size. A Peak Insights poll of 500 likely voters, fielded August 11-13, had Republican Jim Risch at 52 percent and independent Todd Achilles at 18. A Bullfinch Group poll of 608 likely voters, fielded August 4-7, had Risch at 34 and...

Our forecast of the Louisiana Senate race moved toward the Republican between runs a day apart. On August 16 at 10:15 PM ET, our model gave Democrat Jamie Davis a 10 percent chance. As of August 17 at 4:01 PM ET, it gives him a 2 in 100 chance, with Republican Julia Letlow at 98 percent. That is...

Our model, updated August 16 at 11:27 PM ET, gives Democrats a 93 in 100 chance of winning a House majority, with a mean of 242.2 seats against the 218 needed for control. Republicans are at 7 percent. One note on how that figure is built: our simulation draws correlated error nationally, by...