Dispatches

Our model now gives Democrat Abdul El-Sayed a 58 in 100 chance of winning Michigan's open Senate seat, against 42% for Republican Mike Rogers. Three days ago, in our run of August 16 at 10:15 PM ET, the same estimate was 43%. That is a shift of 15.7 points of Democratic win probability over three...

A Susquehanna Polling & Research survey of 800 likely voters in Michigan, fielded August 11-17, puts Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 46 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 39 percent.

That is the only new number in the race, and it moved our forecast. Our model now gives El-Sayed a 58 in 100 chance...

A J.L. Partners survey of 803 likely voters in Arkansas, fielded August 14-18, put Republican Sen. Tom Cotton at 51% and Democrat Hallie Shoffner at 35%.

That 16-point margin is narrower than what our model had been carrying, and the model moved accordingly. Our current run has a mean margin of...

One new poll in Pennsylvania's 1st District has the Republican at 47 percent and the Democrat at 43 percent. It was conducted by Global Strategy Group among 500 likely voters, fielded August 5-9. With a sample that size, a four-point margin describes a close race rather than a settled one.

Our...

Seventy-six days out, our model gives Democrats a 48 percent chance of a Senate majority and Republicans 52 percent. The mean Democratic seat total in our simulations is 50.1, just short of the 51 seats Democrats need; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50...

A KTSP/SurveyUSA survey of 661 likely voters in Minnesota, fielded August 13-17, puts the Democrat at 46 percent and the Republican at 41 percent. The poll leaves about 13 percent of likely voters unaccounted for between the two parties. No margin of error is attached to the numbers we have, and...

Two new surveys of the Michigan Senate race, both from TIPP Insights and both fielded August 6-10, put Democrat Abdul El-Sayed slightly ahead of Republican Mike Rogers. Among 1,528 registered voters, El-Sayed took 43 percent to Rogers' 39 percent. Among 1,215 likely voters, the split was 45...

An InsiderAdvantage survey of 800 likely voters, fielded August 16-17, put Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff at 50% and Republican Mike Collins at 43%. That seven-point gap is close to where our average already had the race, and the update it produced was small.

Our model now gives Ossoff an 85 in...

One new poll of Virginia's 5th District has the race inside a few points. Expedition Strategies surveyed 602 likely voters from July 29 to August 1 and found the Republican at 47 percent and the Democrat at 44 percent. A three-point gap on that sample size is not a measurable lead, so the fair...

One new poll landed in Alaska's at-large district. A Data for Progress survey of 605 likely voters, fielded July 28 to August 4, put the Republican at 47 percent and an independent candidate at 37 percent. The poll as reported to us lists no Democratic option, so its 10-point gap does not...

A UMass Amherst/YouGov survey of 800 registered voters in Massachusetts, fielded August 5-12, puts Democratic incumbent Ed Markey at 51 percent and Republican John Deaton at 30 percent. That is a 21-point margin, with roughly a fifth of respondents not accounted for by either candidate.

The...

An Insider Advantage survey of 800 likely voters in Georgia, fielded August 16-17, put Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff at 50 percent and Republican Mike Collins at 43 percent.

Our model now gives Ossoff an 83 in 100 chance of winning the seat, with a mean margin of D+6.5 and a 5th-to-95th...

Seventy-seven days before the November 3 election, our average of 26 generic ballot polls taken over the past 45 days stands at D+6.7. As of 6:30 AM ET, our model gives Democrats a 47 percent chance of Senate control and Republicans 53 percent, with a mean of 50.1 Democratic seats. Democrats need...

Two University of New Hampshire surveys of 954 likely voters in Vermont's at-large district, each fielded July 15-20, put the Democrat at 63 percent and 25 percent for the Republican in one, and 64 to 25 in the other. That is a gap of 38 to 39 points.

Our forecast did not need much revision. The...

A Global Strategy Group survey of 500 likely voters in New York's 18th District, fielded July 23-26, put the Democrat at 53 percent and the Republican at 39 percent. That is a 14-point margin, and it is the only poll of the race in this payload.

Our forecast did not change in any way that...

Two new surveys of the Alaska Senate race both show Mary Peltola ahead of Dan Sullivan. A Data for Progress poll of 605 likely voters, fielded July 28 to August 4, has Peltola at 47 percent and Sullivan at 41 percent. A second ballot test from the same Data for Progress survey of 605 likely...

Our model now gives Democrat Mary Peltola a 34 in 100 chance of winning the Alaska Senate race against Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. That is up 10.8 points from the 23 percent estimate in our previous run, dated August 16 at 10:15 PM ET. The two runs are one day apart.

The expected margin...

A Hart Research survey of 401 likely voters in Ohio's 15th District, fielded August 6-9, put the Republican at 41 percent and the Democrat at 37 percent. On a sample that size, a four-point gap does not establish a lead. The race is close, and a sizable share of respondents picked neither...

Four new surveys of Idaho's Senate race disagree sharply on its size. A Peak Insights poll of 500 likely voters, fielded August 11-13, had Republican Jim Risch at 52 percent and independent Todd Achilles at 18. A Bullfinch Group poll of 608 likely voters, fielded August 4-7, had Risch at 34 and...

Our forecast of the Louisiana Senate race moved toward the Republican between runs a day apart. On August 16 at 10:15 PM ET, our model gave Democrat Jamie Davis a 10 percent chance. As of August 17 at 4:01 PM ET, it gives him a 2 in 100 chance, with Republican Julia Letlow at 98 percent. That is...

Our model, updated August 16 at 11:27 PM ET, gives Democrats a 93 in 100 chance of winning a House majority, with a mean of 242.2 seats against the 218 needed for control. Republicans are at 7 percent. One note on how that figure is built: our simulation draws correlated error nationally, by...