PA-7

Bob Brooks (Dem)
Ryan Mackenzie (Rep · incumbent)

Favors Dem

Democrats86%

Democrats are favored, winning 85,906 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats86%

Democrats are favored, winning 85,878 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+9.1

5th–95th interval

R+4.9 to D+23.0

Estimated margin

D+9.1

5th–95th interval

R+4.9 to D+23.0

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+5.0 current average: D+5.0

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Franklin & Marshall College	Sep 9–Sep 20, 2026	350 rv	Bob Brooks 45.0% Ryan Mackenzie 40.0%	D+5.0	—	Source
GBAO dem sponsor	Jun 29–Jul 2, 2026	n/a lv	Bob Brooks 47.0% Ryan Mackenzie 43.0%	D+4.0	D+3.3 D+0.7 lean removed	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction PA-7 Sep 24, 2026

Franklin & Marshall poll in PA-7 nudges our forecast down two points

Bob Brooks 45, Ryan Mackenzie 40 in a survey of 350 registered voters; our model now gives the Democrat an 84% chance.

A Franklin & Marshall College survey of Pennsylvania's 7th District, fielded September 9-20 among 350 registered voters, put Democrat Bob Brooks at 45 percent and Republican incumbent Ryan Mackenzie at 40 percent. The sample is small and the payload carries no margin of error for it, so the...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5