IN-5
- J. D. Ford (Dem)
- Victoria Spartz (Rep · incumbent)
Favors Rep
Republicans82%
Republicans are favored, winning 82,289 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Rep
Republicans82%
Republicans are favored, winning 82,242 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+7.9
5th–95th interval
R+21.9 to D+6.2
Estimated margin
R+7.8
5th–95th interval
R+21.9 to D+6.2
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+2.8
Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research dem sponsor | Jul 16–Jul 20, 2026 | n/a lv | Victoria Spartz 48.0% J. D. Ford 46.0% | R+2.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.