NC-10
- Ashley Bell (Dem)
- Pat Harrigan (Rep · incumbent)
Favors Rep
Republicans84%
Republicans are favored, winning 84,146 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Rep
Republicans84%
Republicans are favored, winning 84,146 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+8.5
5th–95th interval
R+22.6 to D+5.3
Estimated margin
R+8.5
5th–95th interval
R+22.6 to D+5.3
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners rep sponsor | Mar 10–Mar 12, 2026 | 400 lv | Pat Harrigan 52.0% Ashley Bell 37.0% | R+15.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.