OH-15

Republicans are favored, winning in 66 in 100 simulations.

Forecast detail

as of Aug 19, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT

Rating

Favors Rep

Win probability

R 66%

Estimated margin

R+4.1

5th–95th interval

R+20.8 to D+12.9

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+5.2

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Hart Research	Aug 6–Aug 9, 2026	401 lv	Rep 41.0% Dem 37.0%	R+4.0	R+5.2 D+1.2 lean removed	Source
Hart Research	Jun 23–Jun 25, 2026	550 lv	Rep 45.0% Dem 40.0%	R+5.0	R+6.2 D+1.2 lean removed	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction OH-15 Aug 17, 2026

A single Ohio poll leaves OH-15 close and our forecast nearly unchanged

Hart Research finds Republicans up four points in the district, and our model now gives the Democrat a 35 percent chance.

A Hart Research survey of 401 likely voters in Ohio's 15th District, fielded August 6-9, put the Republican at 41 percent and the Democrat at 37 percent. On a sample that size, a four-point gap does not establish a lead. The race is close, and a sizable share of respondents picked neither...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5