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535

OH-15

  • Don Leonard (Dem)
  • Mike Carey (Rep · incumbent)
  • Brennan Barrington (Other)

Tossup

Republicans61%

This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 60,553 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Tossup

Republicans60%

This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 59,502 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+2.3

5th–95th interval

R+16.3 to D+11.8

Estimated margin

R+2.1

5th–95th interval

R+16.0 to D+12.0

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+0.3

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Don Leonard (D) vs Mike Carey (R) · 1 poll
Hart Research Associates dem sponsor Sep 22–Sep 24, 2026 500 lv Don Leonard 46.0% Mike Carey 45.0% D+1.0 — Source
Brennan Barrington (LIB) vs Don Leonard (D) vs Mike Carey (R) · 2 polls
Hart Research Associates dem sponsor Aug 6–Aug 9, 2026 401 lv Mike Carey 41.0% Don Leonard 37.0% Other 10.0% R+4.0 — Source
Hart Research Associates dem sponsor Jun 23–Jun 25, 2026 550 lv Mike Carey 45.0% Don Leonard 40.0% Other 3.0% R+5.0 — Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction OH-15 Sep 28, 2026

New OH-15 poll puts Carey and Leonard a point apart as our model moves by one

A Hart Research survey for House Majority PAC nudges Don Leonard's chance up slightly, but our average margin still favors Republican incumbent Mike Carey.

A Hart Research Associates survey of 500 likely voters in Ohio's 15th District, fielded September 22-24 and sponsored by House Majority PAC, found Democrat Don Leonard at 46% and Republican Rep. Mike Carey at 45%. A one-point gap in a sample that size is not a lead. The poll shows a close race....

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Poll reaction OH-15 Aug 17, 2026

A single Ohio poll leaves OH-15 close and our forecast nearly unchanged

Hart Research finds Republicans up four points in the district, and our model now gives the Democrat a 35 percent chance.

A Hart Research survey of 401 likely voters in Ohio's 15th District, fielded August 6-9, put the Republican at 41 percent and the Democrat at 37 percent. On a sample that size, a four-point gap does not establish a lead. The race is close, and a sizable share of respondents picked neither...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5