MT-2

Brian Miller (Dem)
Troy Downing (Rep · incumbent)

Favors Rep

Republicans99%

Republicans are favored, winning 99,403 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans99%

Republicans are favored, winning 99,403 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+21.3

5th–95th interval

R+35.3 to R+7.3

Estimated margin

R+21.3

5th–95th interval

R+35.3 to R+7.3

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+22.0 current average: R+22.0

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Rutgers-Eagleton	Aug 27–Sep 7, 2026	n/a rv	Troy Downing 48.0% Brian Miller 26.0% Ind 9.0% Other 5.0%	R+22.0	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction MT-2 Sep 16, 2026

Montana poll puts Downing up 22, and our MT-2 forecast does not move

A Rutgers-Eagleton survey for Montana Free Press has the Republican incumbent at 48% and Democrat Brian Miller at 26%, in line with what our model already had.

A Rutgers-Eagleton poll sponsored by Montana Free Press, fielded August 27 to September 7 among registered voters, gives Republican Rep. Troy Downing 48% and Democrat Brian Miller 26% in Montana's 2nd District. Nine percent went to an independent and 5% to another option, leaving a substantial...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5