VA-6

Beth Macy (Dem)
Ben Cline (Rep · incumbent)

Favors Rep

Republicans99%

Republicans are favored, winning 99,254 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans99%

Republicans are favored, winning 99,254 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+20.8

5th–95th interval

R+34.7 to R+6.7

Estimated margin

R+20.8

5th–95th interval

R+34.7 to R+6.7

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+27.7 current average: R+27.7

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
co/efficient	Sep 28–Sep 30, 2026	791 lv	Ben Cline 59.0% Beth Macy 29.0%	R+30.0	R+27.7 R+2.3 lean removed	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction VA-6 Oct 2, 2026

New poll widens Cline's projected margin in Virginia's 6th District

A co/efficient survey showing Cline ahead by 30 points moved our expected margin in VA-6 toward the Republicans, though it barely changed his already lopsided chances.

Republican Rep. Ben Cline leads Democrat Beth Macy 59% to 29% in a co/efficient survey of 791 likely voters in Virginia's 6th District, fielded September 28-30. That 30-point gap is the only new poll in the race.

The survey pushed our forecast further toward Cline. Our model now gives Macy a 1...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5