AZ-6
- JoAnna Mendoza (Dem)
- Juan Ciscomani (Rep · incumbent)
Favors Dem
Democrats83%
Democrats are favored, winning 83,374 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Dem
Democrats83%
Democrats are favored, winning 83,361 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
D+8.2
5th–95th interval
R+5.7 to D+22.2
Estimated margin
D+8.2
5th–95th interval
R+5.8 to D+22.2
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+1.3
Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington, Petts & Associates dem sponsor | Jun 8–Jun 11, 2026 | 500 lv | JoAnna Mendoza 47.0% Juan Ciscomani 45.0% | D+2.0 | — | Source |
| Ragnar Research Partners rep sponsor | Mar 12–Mar 14, 2026 | 400 lv | JoAnna Mendoza 47.0% Juan Ciscomani 44.0% | D+3.0 | — | Source |
| Public Policy Polling dem sponsor | Oct 14–Oct 15, 2025 | 581 rv | JoAnna Mendoza 42.0% Juan Ciscomani 41.0% | D+1.0 | D+2.5 R+1.5 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.