CA-9
- Josh Harder (Dem · incumbent)
- John McBride (Rep)
Favors Dem
Democrats96%
Democrats are favored, winning 95,537 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Dem
Democrats96%
Democrats are favored, winning 95,537 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
D+14.4
5th–95th interval
D+0.5 to D+28.3
Estimated margin
D+14.4
5th–95th interval
D+0.5 to D+28.3
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
No public polling — forecast rests on fundamentals (state lean, national environment).
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.