TN-9

Justin J. Pearson (Dem)
Brent Taylor (Rep)

Favors Dem

Democrats100%

Democrats are favored, winning 100,000 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats100%

Democrats are favored, winning 100,000 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+56.3

5th–95th interval

D+42.3 to D+70.3

Estimated margin

D+54.5

5th–95th interval

D+40.6 to D+68.5

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+4.8

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Hart Research Associates dem sponsor	Sep 1–Sep 3, 2026	400 lv	Brent Taylor 48.0% Justin J. Pearson 44.0%	R+4.0	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction TN-9 Sep 10, 2026

A partisan poll puts TN-9 within four points; our model does not move

A Hart Research survey for two PACs shows Brent Taylor at 48 and Justin J. Pearson at 44, while our forecast still has the Democrat at a mean margin of D+54.5.

One new survey landed in Tennessee's 9th District. Hart Research Associates, polling 400 likely voters for Tennessee Rise PAC and Three Star PAC between September 1 and September 3, put Republican Brent Taylor at 48 percent and Democrat Justin J. Pearson at 44 percent. The poll does not report a...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5