FL-7
- Bale Dalton (Dem)
- Ryan Elijah (Rep)
Tossup
Republicans60%
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 60,377 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Tossup
Republicans60%
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 60,377 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+2.3
5th–95th interval
R+16.3 to D+11.7
Estimated margin
R+2.3
5th–95th interval
R+16.3 to D+11.7
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling dem sponsor | May 20–May 21, 2026 | 570 rv | Bale Dalton 41.0% Rep 39.0% | D+2.0 | D+3.5 R+1.5 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.