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535

OK-5

  • Jena Nelson (Dem)
  • Stephanie Bice (Rep · incumbent)

Favors Rep

Republicans88%

Republicans are favored, winning 87,908 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans88%

Republicans are favored, winning 87,908 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+9.9

5th–95th interval

R+23.8 to D+4.1

Estimated margin

R+9.9

5th–95th interval

R+23.8 to D+4.1

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+5.7 current average: R+5.7

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
GBAO Sep 17–Sep 20, 2026 500 lv Stephanie Bice 48.0% Jena Nelson 43.0% R+5.0 R+5.7 D+0.7 lean removed Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction OK-5 Sep 24, 2026

New OK-5 poll shows Bice up five, nudging our forecast slightly

A GBAO survey has Stephanie Bice at 48% and Jena Nelson at 43%; our model now gives Nelson a 14 in 100 chance.

A GBAO survey of 500 likely voters in Oklahoma's 5th District, fielded September 17-20, puts Republican incumbent Stephanie Bice at 48% and Democrat Jena Nelson at 43%.

That is the only new number in the race, and it moved our forecast a little. Our model now gives Nelson a 14 in 100 chance of...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5