NY-1
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins in 54 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 19, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT
Rating
Tossup
Win probability
R 54%
Estimated margin
R+1.0
5th–95th interval
R+18.2 to D+16.2
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Dec 10–Dec 11, 2025 | 579 unknown | Rep 41.0% Dem 38.0% | R+3.0 | R+2.8 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.