NY-1
- Chris Gallant (Dem)
- Nick LaLota (Rep · incumbent)
Tossup
Democrats52%
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 51,539 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Tossup
Democrats52%
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 51,539 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
D+0.3
5th–95th interval
R+13.6 to D+14.4
Estimated margin
D+0.3
5th–95th interval
R+13.6 to D+14.4
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling dem sponsor | Dec 10–Dec 11, 2025 | 579 rv | Nick LaLota 41.0% Chris Gallant 38.0% | R+3.0 | R+1.5 R+1.5 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.