Skip to content
535

TX-28

  • Henry Cuellar (Dem · incumbent)
  • Tano Tijerina (Rep)

Favors Dem

Democrats97%

Democrats are favored, winning 97,138 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats97%

Democrats are favored, winning 97,123 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+16.1

5th–95th interval

D+2.2 to D+30.1

Estimated margin

D+16.1

5th–95th interval

D+2.2 to D+30.1

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+11.0 current average: D+10.6

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Henry Cuellar (D) vs Tano Tijerina (R) · 1 poll
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center Aug 18–Aug 22, 2026 600 lv Henry Cuellar 45.0% Tano Tijerina 34.0% Other 6.0% D+11.0 — Source
Henry Cuellar (D) vs Tano Tijerina (R) · 2 polls
Pulse Decision Science rep sponsor Jun 21–Jun 23, 2026 400 lv Tano Tijerina 46.0% Henry Cuellar 38.0% R+8.0 — Source
Pulse Decision Science rep sponsor Jun 21–Jun 23, 2026 400 lv Tano Tijerina 42.0% Henry Cuellar 33.0% R+9.0 — Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction TX-28 Aug 26, 2026

New TX-28 poll shows Cuellar ahead by 11, and our forecast barely moves

Public Policy Research and Texas Southern University put the Democratic incumbent at 45% to Tano Tijerina's 34%; our model now gives Cuellar a 90% chance.

A Public Policy Research/Texas Southern University survey of 600 likely voters in Texas's 28th District, fielded August 18-22, put Democratic incumbent Henry Cuellar at 45% and Republican Tano Tijerina at 34%. That is an 11-point margin, with about a fifth of respondents landing somewhere other...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5