TX-28
Democrats are favored, winning in 92 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 19, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 92%
Estimated margin
D+14.6
5th–95th interval
R+2.5 to D+31.9
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+9.0
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pulse Science Decision | Jun 21–Jun 23, 2026 | 400 lv | Rep 42.0% Dem 33.0% | R+9.0 | — | Source |
| Pulse Science Decision | Jun 21–Jun 23, 2026 | 400 lv | Rep 46.0% Dem 38.0% | R+8.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.