NY-21

Blake Gendebien (Dem)
Anthony Constantino (Rep)

Favors Rep

Republicans94%

Republicans are favored, winning 93,598 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans93%

Republicans are favored, winning 92,979 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+12.9

5th–95th interval

R+26.9 to D+1.0

Estimated margin

R+12.5

5th–95th interval

R+26.5 to D+1.4

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+6.7 current average: R+4.1

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Anthony Constantino (R) vs Blake Gendebien (D) · 4 polls
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor	Sep 9–Sep 10, 2026	557 rv	Anthony Constantino 48.0% Blake Gendebien 43.0%	R+5.0	R+3.5 R+1.5 lean removed	Source
Impact Research dem sponsor	Aug 30–Sep 2, 2026	500 lv	Anthony Constantino 47.0% Blake Gendebien 44.0%	R+3.0	—	Source
J.L. Partners	Aug 15–Aug 17, 2026	500 lv	Anthony Constantino 53.0% Blake Gendebien 40.0%	R+13.0	R+14.2 D+1.2 lean removed	Source
Impact Research dem sponsor	May 26–May 31, 2026	500 lv	Anthony Constantino 45.0% Blake Gendebien 44.0%	R+1.0	—	Source
Anthony Constantino (R) vs Blake Gendebien (D) vs Chris Schmidt (I) · 1 poll
SurveyUSA	Aug 4–Aug 8, 2026	612 lv	Blake Gendebien 43.0% Anthony Constantino 39.0% Ind 5.0%	D+4.0	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction NY-21 Sep 16, 2026

NY-21 poll has Constantino up five; our forecast holds at R+13.4

Public Policy Polling is the latest survey to put the district in single digits, and our model still gives Blake Gendebien a 7 in 100 chance.

A Public Policy Polling survey of 557 registered voters in New York's 21st District, sponsored by The Bench and fielded September 9-10, has Republican Anthony Constantino at 48 percent and Democrat Blake Gendebien at 43 percent. The poll's release did not include a margin of error, so the...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction NY-21 Sep 8, 2026

Impact Research puts NY-21 within three points; our forecast stays at R+13.7

The new survey is closer than our average, and the model's estimate of Blake Gendebien's chances moved from 8 in 100 to 7 percent.

An Impact Research survey of 500 likely voters in New York's 21st District, fielded August 30 to September 2, put Republican Anthony Constantino at 47 percent and Democrat Blake Gendebien at 44 percent. On a sample that size, a three-point gap is close enough that the poll does not establish a...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction NY-21 Aug 20, 2026

New NY-21 poll shows Republican up 10, and our forecast barely moves

A J.L. Partners survey of 500 likely voters matches our model's expected margin almost exactly, leaving the Democrat at a 16 in 100 chance.

A J.L. Partners survey of 500 likely voters in New York's 21st District, fielded August 15-17, put the Republican at 50 percent and the Democrat at 40 percent.

That is close to what our model already expected. Our forecast now gives the Republican an 84 percent chance in the district and the...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5