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535

FL-13

  • Leela Gray (Dem)
  • Anna Paulina Luna (Rep · incumbent)

Tossup

Democrats55%

This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 55,158 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Tossup

Democrats55%

This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 55,440 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+1.1

5th–95th interval

R+12.8 to D+15.1

Estimated margin

D+1.2

5th–95th interval

R+12.7 to D+15.2

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+4.3

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Anna Paulina Luna (R) vs Leela Gray (D) · 3 polls
Hart Research Associates dem sponsor Aug 25–Aug 27, 2026 n/a lv Leela Gray 51.0% Anna Paulina Luna 46.0% D+5.0 — Source
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates rep sponsor Aug 4–Aug 6, 2026 400 lv Anna Paulina Luna 49.0% Leela Gray 41.0% R+8.0 — Source
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor May 19–May 20, 2026 616 rv Anna Paulina Luna 41.0% Leela Gray 39.0% R+2.0 R+0.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source
Anna Paulina Luna (R) vs Leela Gray (D) vs Tony D’Arrigo (I) · 2 polls
Hart Research Associates dem sponsor Aug 25–Aug 27, 2026 n/a lv Leela Gray 44.0% Anna Paulina Luna 43.0% Ind 7.0% D+1.0 — Source
GQR dem sponsor Aug 4–Aug 6, 2026 500 lv Anna Paulina Luna 47.0% Leela Gray 44.0% Ind 4.0% R+3.0 — Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction FL-13 Sep 1, 2026

Democratic-sponsored polls in FL-13 leave our forecast where it was

Two Hart Research surveys for House Majority PAC show a close race and a five-point Gray lead; our model still gives the Democrat a 48 percent chance.

Two new surveys of Florida's 13th District, both from Hart Research Associates and both sponsored by House Majority PAC, were fielded August 25-27 among likely voters. One, which included an unnamed independent option at 7 percent, put Democrat Leela Gray at 44 percent and Republican incumbent...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5