WI-6
- Brad Smith (Dem)
- Glenn Grothman (Rep · incumbent)
Favors Rep
Republicans92%
Republicans are favored, winning 91,828 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Rep
Republicans92%
Republicans are favored, winning 91,828 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+11.8
5th–95th interval
R+25.8 to D+2.1
Estimated margin
R+11.8
5th–95th interval
R+25.8 to D+2.1
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glenn Grothman (R) vs Michael Thurow (I) · 2 polls | ||||||
| Tavern Research ind sponsor | May 18–May 28, 2026 | 437 lv | Glenn Grothman 55.0% Ind 45.0% | — | — | Source |
| Change Research ind sponsor | Mar 17–Mar 20, 2026 | 640 lv | Glenn Grothman 41.7% Ind 37.7% | — | — | Source |
| Brad Smith (D) vs Glenn Grothman (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Tavern Research ind sponsor | May 18–May 28, 2026 | 437 lv | Glenn Grothman 61.0% Brad Smith 39.0% | R+22.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.