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535

AK-1

  • Nick Begich III (Rep · incumbent)
  • Bill Hill (Ind)

Tossup

Republicans55%

This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 54,827 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Tossup

Republicans58%

This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 58,026 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+1.1

5th–95th interval

R+15.0 to I+12.9

Estimated margin

R+1.7

5th–95th interval

R+15.7 to I+12.2

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Other win probability Tossup band

Polls

Ind-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+12.4 current average: R+11.8

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Bill Hill (I) vs Eric Hafner (D) vs Jim C. McDermott (LIB) vs Nick Begich (R) · 5 polls
The New York Times/Siena University Sep 24–Oct 1, 2026 504 lv Nick Begich III 46.6% Bill Hill 35.1% Dem 8.2% Other 5.5% R+11.5 R+11.5 Even lean removed Source
The New York Times/Siena University Sep 24–Oct 1, 2026 487 lv Nick Begich III 48.9% Bill Hill 36.8% Dem 8.6% Other 5.8% R+12.1 R+12.0 Even lean removed Source
Fabrizio Ward/ Impact Research Sep 8–Sep 11, 2026 800 lv Nick Begich III 45.0% Bill Hill 31.0% Dem 9.0% Other 3.0% R+14.0 R+14.9 D+0.9 lean removed Source
Fabrizio Ward/ Impact Research Sep 8–Sep 11, 2026 800 lv Nick Begich III 51.0% Bill Hill 35.0% Dem 11.0% Other 4.0% R+16.0 R+16.9 D+0.9 lean removed Source
The Bullfinch Group ind sponsor Sep 1–Sep 6, 2026 820 lv Nick Begich III 44.2% Bill Hill 36.6% Dem 7.4% Other 1.9% R+7.6 R+8.7 D+1.1 lean removed Source
Bill Hill (I) vs Nick Begich (R) · 7 polls
The New York Times/Siena University Sep 24–Oct 1, 2026 476 lv Nick Begich III 53.0% Bill Hill 47.0% R+6.1 R+6.0 Even lean removed Source
Fabrizio Ward/ Impact Research Sep 8–Sep 11, 2026 800 lv Nick Begich III 57.0% Bill Hill 43.0% R+14.0 R+14.9 D+0.9 lean removed Source
The Bullfinch Group ind sponsor Sep 1–Sep 6, 2026 820 lv Nick Begich III 50.3% Bill Hill 46.5% R+3.8 R+4.9 D+1.1 lean removed Source
GBAO ind sponsor Aug 3–Aug 5, 2026 500 lv Nick Begich III 46.0% Bill Hill 42.0% R+4.0 R+4.7 D+0.7 lean removed Source
Data for Progress Jul 28–Aug 4, 2026 605 lv Nick Begich III 47.0% Bill Hill 37.0% R+10.0 — Source
Tavern Research ind sponsor May 18–May 27, 2026 452 lv Nick Begich III 52.0% Bill Hill 48.0% R+4.0 — Source
Public Policy Polling ind sponsor Feb 11–Feb 12, 2026 600 lv Nick Begich III 41.0% Bill Hill 37.0% R+4.0 R+2.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source
Bill Hill (I) vs Eric Hafner (D) vs Nick Begich (R) · 2 polls
Alaska Survey Research Aug 20–Aug 23, 2026 1,872 lv Nick Begich III 50.6% Bill Hill 39.1% Dem 4.6% R+11.5 — Source
Alaska Survey Research Aug 2–Aug 5, 2026 1,371 lv Nick Begich III 50.4% Bill Hill 34.4% Dem 15.2% R+16.0 — Source
Bill Hill (I) vs Clay Strickland (R) vs Eric Hafner (D) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
Alaska Survey Research Aug 2–Aug 5, 2026 1,371 lv Bill Hill 33.2% Dem 14.7% Rep 4.2% I+29.0 — Source
Bill Hill (I) vs Matt Schultz (D) vs Nick Begich (R) · 1 poll
The Bullfinch Group Jul 13–Jul 16, 2026 546 lv Nick Begich III 46.0% Dem 32.0% Bill Hill 20.0% R+26.0 R+27.1 D+1.1 lean removed Source
Matt Schultz (D) vs Nick Begich (R) · 4 polls
The New York Times/Siena University Jun 15–Jun 29, 2026 593 lv Nick Begich III 51.1% Dem 39.2% — — Source
Tavern Research ind sponsor May 18–May 27, 2026 452 lv Nick Begich III 55.0% Dem 45.0% — — Source
Public Policy Polling ind sponsor Feb 11–Feb 12, 2026 600 lv Nick Begich III 46.0% Dem 39.0% — — Source
Data for Progress Oct 17–Oct 23, 2025 823 lv Nick Begich III 48.0% Dem 37.0% — — Source
Bill Hill (I) vs John Williams (D) vs Nick Begich (R) · 1 poll
Change Research ind sponsor Mar 17–Mar 20, 2026 624 lv Nick Begich III 44.8% Bill Hill 13.0% Dem 3.8% R+31.8 R+32.3 D+0.5 lean removed Source
Mary S. Peltola (D) vs Nick Begich (R) · 1 poll
Data for Progress Feb 28–Mar 7, 2025 1,008 lv Nick Begich III 46.0% Dem 46.0% — — Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction AK-1 Oct 3, 2026

Three Siena ballot tests put Begich ahead, and our Alaska forecast now favors him

Our model had given independent Bill Hill a 68% chance earlier Saturday; after the New York Times/Siena results, Nick Begich III is the favorite.

Our forecast for Alaska's at-large House seat has changed sides. Our model now gives Republican Rep. Nick Begich III a 57 in 100 chance of winning, up from 32% in the run published at 4:32 AM ET on October 3. Independent Bill Hill's chance fell from 68% to 43%. Our model gives the Democratic line...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Poll reaction AK-1 Oct 2, 2026

A September Alaska poll shows Begich ahead, and our forecast for Hill holds steady

The Bullfinch Group asked the same 820 voters two ballot questions, and the gap narrows sharply when the race is reduced to Begich against Hill.

A survey by The Bullfinch Group, sponsored by the Independent Leadership Council, did not change our forecast for Alaska's at-large House seat. Our model gives Bill Hill, the independent, a 67 in 100 chance of winning, against 33% for Nick Begich III, the Republican incumbent. Those figures match...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Poll reaction AK-1 Sep 17, 2026

Three AARP ballot tests put Begich ahead in Alaska; our forecast does not move

Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research shows the Republican incumbent leading Bill Hill by 14 to 16 points, but the model still gives Hill a 79 percent chance.

Three new ballot tests from the same survey all show Republican Rep. Nick Begich III ahead of independent Bill Hill in Alaska's at-large district. In a Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research poll for AARP of 800 likely voters, fielded September 8-11, Begich led Hill 57 percent to 43 percent head-to-head....

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction AK-1 Aug 31, 2026

Begich leads the newest Alaska poll, but our model still favors Hill

Alaska Survey Research puts the Republican incumbent at 50.6 percent; our forecast now gives independent Bill Hill a 75 percent chance in the at-large seat.

The newest survey of Alaska's at-large district has Republican Rep. Nick Begich III at 50.6 percent, independent Bill Hill at 39.1 percent and the Democratic line at 4.6 percent. That is Alaska Survey Research, which polled 1,872 likely voters August 20-23.

The same pollster's earlier survey of...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Movement note AK-1 Aug 25, 2026

Alaska at-large forecast moves toward Begich as the Democratic line goes to zero

Our model now gives independent Bill Hill a 63 in 100 chance and Republican Nick Begich III 37 percent, with no new poll of the seat since August 18.

Our model's numbers for Alaska's at-large House district changed shape over the past week. In the run of August 18, it gave a Democrat a 72 percent chance and Republican incumbent Nick Begich III 28 percent. In the run of August 25, the Democratic chance is zero, independent Bill Hill has a 63 in...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction AK-1 Aug 18, 2026

Alaska's at-large seat barely moves after a Data for Progress poll

The survey has the Republican ahead of an independent by 10 points, but our model still puts the Democratic side slightly ahead on average.

One new poll landed in Alaska's at-large district. A Data for Progress survey of 605 likely voters, fielded July 28 to August 4, put the Republican at 47 percent and an independent candidate at 37 percent. The poll as reported to us lists no Democratic option, so its 10-point gap does not...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5