AK-1

Democrats are favored, winning in 72 in 100 simulations.

Forecast detail

as of Aug 19, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT

Rating

Favors Dem

Win probability

D 72%

Estimated margin

D+6.3

5th–95th interval

R+10.8 to D+23.5

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+10.1

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Bill Hill (I) vs Nick Begich III (R) · 4 polls
GBAO	Aug 3–Aug 5, 2026	500 lv	Rep 46.0% Ind 42.0%	—	—	Source
Data for Progress	Jul 28–Aug 4, 2026	605 lv	Rep 47.0% Ind 37.0%	—	—	Source
Tavern Research	May 18–May 27, 2026	452 lv	Rep 52.0% Ind 48.0%	—	—	Source
Public Policy Polling	Feb 11–Feb 12, 2026	600 lv	Rep 41.0% Ind 37.0%	—	—	Source
Matt Schultz (D) vs Nick Begich III (R) · 4 polls
New York Times/Siena University	Jun 15–Jun 29, 2026	593 lv	Rep 51.0% Dem 39.0%	R+12.0	R+10.4 R+1.6 lean removed	Source
Tavern Research	May 18–May 27, 2026	452 lv	Rep 55.0% Dem 45.0%	R+10.0	R+8.4 R+1.6 lean removed	Source
Public Policy Polling	Feb 11–Feb 12, 2026	600 lv	Rep 46.0% Dem 39.0%	R+7.0	R+6.8 R+0.2 lean removed	Source
Data for Progress	Oct 17–Oct 23, 2025	823 lv	Rep 48.0% Dem 37.0%	R+11.0	R+11.2 D+0.2 lean removed	Source
Mary Peltola (D) vs Nick Begich III (R) · 1 poll
Data for Progress	Feb 28–Mar 7, 2025	1,000 lv	Rep 46.0% Dem 46.0%	Even	R+0.2 D+0.2 lean removed	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction AK-1 Aug 18, 2026

Alaska's at-large seat barely moves after a Data for Progress poll

The survey has the Republican ahead of an independent by 10 points, but our model still puts the Democratic side slightly ahead on average.

One new poll landed in Alaska's at-large district. A Data for Progress survey of 605 likely voters, fielded July 28 to August 4, put the Republican at 47 percent and an independent candidate at 37 percent. The poll as reported to us lists no Democratic option, so its 10-point gap does not...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5