CA-45
- Derek Tran (Dem · incumbent)
- Chuong Vo (Rep)
Favors Dem
Democrats90%
Democrats are favored, winning 90,234 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Dem
Democrats90%
Democrats are favored, winning 90,234 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
D+10.9
5th–95th interval
R+3.0 to D+24.8
Estimated margin
D+10.9
5th–95th interval
R+3.0 to D+24.8
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
No public polling — forecast rests on fundamentals (state lean, national environment).
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.