TN-5
- Chaz Molder (Dem)
- Charlie Hatcher (Rep)
Favors Rep
Republicans78%
Republicans are favored, winning 78,302 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Rep
Republicans78%
Republicans are favored, winning 78,462 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+6.6
5th–95th interval
R+20.6 to D+7.4
Estimated margin
R+6.7
5th–95th interval
R+20.6 to D+7.3
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+8.8
Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Hatcher (R) vs Chaz Molder (D) vs Micheál O'Leary (I) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Impact Research dem sponsor | Aug 19–Aug 24, 2026 | 500 lv | Charlie Hatcher 48.0% Chaz Molder 40.0% Ind 0.0% | R+8.0 | — | Source |
| Andy Ogles (R) vs Chaz Molder (D) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set | ||||||
| Impact Research dem sponsor | May 11–May 13, 2026 | 558 lv | Rep 47.0% Chaz Molder 41.0% | R+6.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.