CA-48

Marni von Wilpert (Dem)
Jim Desmond (Rep)

Favors Rep

Republicans80%

Republicans are favored, winning 80,159 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans80%

Republicans are favored, winning 80,080 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+7.2

5th–95th interval

R+21.1 to D+6.7

Estimated margin

R+7.2

5th–95th interval

R+21.1 to D+6.8

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+3.0 current average: D+2.9

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Jim Desmond (R) vs Marni von Wilpert (D) · 2 polls
SurveyUSA	Aug 27–Sep 1, 2026	522 lv	Marni von Wilpert 45.0% Jim Desmond 42.0%	D+3.0	—	Source
Lake Research Partners dem sponsor	Jul 9–Jul 14, 2026	500 lv	Marni von Wilpert 48.0% Jim Desmond 46.0%	D+2.0	—	Source
Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) vs Darrell Issa (R) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
Blueprint Polling dem sponsor	Oct 25–Oct 26, 2025	517 lv	Dem 43.0% Rep 40.0%	D+3.0	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction CA-48 Sep 4, 2026

A single San Diego-area poll moves our CA-48 forecast toward the middle

SurveyUSA finds Marni von Wilpert and Jim Desmond within three points, and our model now gives the Democrat a 26 percent chance.

One new poll in California's 48th District shows a close race. SurveyUSA, polling for KGTV-TV and the San Diego Union-Tribune, surveyed 522 likely voters from August 27 to September 1 and found Democrat Marni von Wilpert at 45 percent and Republican Jim Desmond at 42 percent. Three points, in a...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5