FL-2
- Amanda Green (Dem)
- Austin Rogers (Rep)
Favors Rep
Republicans93%
Republicans are favored, winning 93,038 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Rep
Republicans93%
Republicans are favored, winning 93,038 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+12.4
5th–95th interval
R+26.4 to D+1.4
Estimated margin
R+12.4
5th–95th interval
R+26.4 to D+1.4
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keith Gross (R) vs Yen Bailey (D) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set | ||||||
| Patriot Polling rep sponsor | Jul 22–Jul 26, 2026 | 922 lv | Rep 62.2% Dem 35.1% | R+27.1 | — | Source |
| Brice Barnes (D) vs Keith Gross (R) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set | ||||||
| Patriot Polling rep sponsor | Jul 22–Jul 26, 2026 | 922 lv | Rep 59.9% Dem 39.1% | R+20.8 | — | Source |
| Amanda Green (D) vs Keith Gross (R) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set | ||||||
| Patriot Polling rep sponsor | Jul 22–Jul 26, 2026 | 922 lv | Rep 60.9% Amanda Green 37.1% | R+23.8 | — | Source |
| Keith Gross (R) vs Nicholas Zateslo (D) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set | ||||||
| Patriot Polling rep sponsor | Jul 22–Jul 26, 2026 | 922 lv | Rep 58.5% Dem 39.1% | R+19.4 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.