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535

NY-23

  • Aaron Gies (Dem)
  • Nick Langworthy (Rep · incumbent)

Favors Rep

Republicans99%

Republicans are favored, winning 99,282 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans99%

Republicans are favored, winning 99,192 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+20.8

5th–95th interval

R+34.8 to R+6.9

Estimated margin

R+20.4

5th–95th interval

R+34.4 to R+6.4

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+16.3

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor Sep 22–Sep 23, 2026 626 lv Nick Langworthy 52.0% Aaron Gies 35.0% R+17.0 R+15.5 R+1.5 lean removed Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction NY-23 Sep 28, 2026

New NY-23 poll shows Langworthy ahead by 17, and our forecast holds steady

A Public Policy Polling survey puts the Republican incumbent at 52% to 35% for Democrat Aaron Gies, a margin inside the range our model already expected.

Republican Rep. Nick Langworthy leads Democrat Aaron Gies 52% to 35% in a Public Policy Polling survey of 626 likely voters in New York's 23rd District, fielded September 22-23. That is a 17-point gap, with 13% of respondents not choosing either candidate.

The poll did not change our forecast....

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5