UT-4

Jonny Larsen (Dem)
Mike Kennedy (Rep)

Favors Rep

Republicans99%

Republicans are favored, winning 99,269 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans99%

Republicans are favored, winning 99,269 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+20.7

5th–95th interval

R+34.6 to R+6.7

Estimated margin

R+20.7

5th–95th interval

R+34.6 to R+6.7

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+8.8 current average: R+8.8

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Lighthouse Research	Sep 8–Sep 17, 2026	513 lv	Mike Kennedy 41.7% Jonny Larsen 32.9% Other 5.7%	R+8.8	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction UT-4 Oct 1, 2026

Lighthouse Research poll trims Kennedy's projected margin in Utah's 4th District

A single September survey nudged our UT-4 forecast toward Jonny Larsen, but Mike Kennedy remains a heavy favorite in our model.

A Lighthouse Research survey of 513 likely voters, sponsored by the Utah Debate Commission and fielded September 8-17, found Republican Mike Kennedy at 41.7% and Democrat Jonny Larsen at 32.9% in Utah's 4th District. That is an 8.8-point gap in the poll. Another 5.7% chose another option, and the...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5