Single NY-18 poll shows a 14-point Democratic lead, and our forecast barely moves
A Global Strategy Group survey has the Democrat at 53 percent; our model still gives that side a 99 percent chance, with the mean margin trimmed by a point.
A Global Strategy Group survey of 500 likely voters in New York's 18th District, fielded July 23-26, put the Democrat at 53 percent and the Republican at 39 percent. That is a 14-point margin, and it is the only poll of the race in this payload.
Our forecast did not change in any way that...
Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5