Skip to content
535

NY-18

  • Pat Ryan (Dem · incumbent)
  • Jacqueline Auringer (Rep)

Favors Dem

Democrats100%

Democrats are favored, winning 99,844 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats100%

Democrats are favored, winning 99,841 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+25.1

5th–95th interval

D+11.1 to D+39.0

Estimated margin

D+25.1

5th–95th interval

D+11.1 to D+38.9

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+13.3

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Global Strategy Group dem sponsor Jul 23–Jul 26, 2026 500 lv Pat Ryan 53.0% Jacqueline Auringer 39.0% D+14.0 — Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction NY-18 Aug 17, 2026

Single NY-18 poll shows a 14-point Democratic lead, and our forecast barely moves

A Global Strategy Group survey has the Democrat at 53 percent; our model still gives that side a 99 percent chance, with the mean margin trimmed by a point.

A Global Strategy Group survey of 500 likely voters in New York's 18th District, fielded July 23-26, put the Democrat at 53 percent and the Republican at 39 percent. That is a 14-point margin, and it is the only poll of the race in this payload.

Our forecast did not change in any way that...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5