NE-2

Denise Powell (Dem)
Brinker Harding (Rep)

Favors Dem

Democrats84%

Democrats are favored, winning 84,485 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats84%

Democrats are favored, winning 84,485 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+8.6

5th–95th interval

R+5.4 to D+22.6

Estimated margin

D+8.6

5th–95th interval

R+5.4 to D+22.6

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+4.0 current average: D+4.0

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
SurveyUSA	Sep 8–Sep 13, 2026	182 lv	Denise Powell 46.0% Brinker Harding 42.0%	D+4.0	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction NE-2 Sep 14, 2026

A small NE-2 poll nudges our forecast a fraction toward Republicans

SurveyUSA finds Denise Powell 46-42 over Brinker Harding among 182 likely voters; our model now gives Powell a 77 in 100 chance.

One new survey in Nebraska's 2nd District has Democrat Denise Powell at 46 percent and Republican Brinker Harding at 42 percent. That is SurveyUSA, sponsored by Grant Forbes, LLC, fielded September 8-13 among 182 likely voters. The sample is small and the payload lists no margin of error, so the...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5