TX-15

Bobby Pulido (Dem)
Monica De La Cruz (Rep · incumbent)

Tossup

Republicans64%

This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 64,175 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Tossup

Republicans57%

This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 56,967 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 12:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+3.1

5th–95th interval

R+17.0 to D+10.9

Estimated margin

R+1.5

5th–95th interval

R+15.4 to D+12.5

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+5.0 current average: D+10.1

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Normington, Petts & Associates dem sponsor	Sep 24–Sep 28, 2026	400 lv	Bobby Pulido 54.0% Monica De La Cruz 41.0%	D+13.0	—	Source
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center	Aug 18–Aug 22, 2026	700 lv	Bobby Pulido 50.0% Monica De La Cruz 45.0%	D+5.0	—	Source
Normington, Petts & Associates dem sponsor	Jul 23–Jul 27, 2026	n/a lv	Bobby Pulido 51.0% Monica De La Cruz 45.0%	D+6.0	—	Source
Applecart dem sponsor	May 18–May 25, 2026	802 lv	Bobby Pulido 48.0% Monica De La Cruz 46.0%	D+2.0	—	Source
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor	Sep 10–Sep 11, 2025	533 rv	Monica De La Cruz 41.0% Bobby Pulido 38.0%	R+3.0	R+1.5 R+1.5 lean removed	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction TX-15 Oct 1, 2026

A Pulido-leading poll in TX-15 barely moves our forecast

A House Majority PAC survey shows the Democrat ahead by 13 points, but our model still gives De La Cruz the better chance and moved by just one point.

A new poll in Texas's 15th District shows Democrat Bobby Pulido ahead of Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz. The Normington, Petts & Associates survey of 400 likely voters, sponsored by House Majority PAC and fielded September 24-28, has Pulido at 54% and De La Cruz at 41%.

Our forecast barely...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Movement note TX-15 Sep 2, 2026

Model moves 18 points toward De La Cruz in TX-15, with no new polling

Our estimate of Bobby Pulido's chance fell from 56% to 38% in a week, and nothing in the polling record changed in that span.

Our forecast in Texas's 15th District moved toward the Republican incumbent over the past week. On August 26 our model gave Bobby Pulido a 56% chance; as of midday September 2 it gives him a 38 in 100 chance, with Monica De La Cruz at 62%. That is a shift of 18 points of Democratic win...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Poll reaction TX-15 Aug 26, 2026

TX-15 forecast sits at 57 in 100 for Pulido after single new poll

One survey of 700 likely voters moved our model roughly three points in margin, and the district's range remains wide in both directions.

One new poll is on the board in Texas's 15th District. A Public Policy Research/Texas Southern University survey of 700 likely voters, fielded August 18-22, put Democrat Bobby Pulido at 50 percent and Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz at 45 percent. It is the only poll of this race in our current...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Movement note TX-15 Aug 26, 2026

Model moves toward Pulido in TX-15 after Texas Southern poll

Our estimate of the Democrat's chance in the south Texas district rose from 36% to 45% in a week, with one new district survey in between.

Our forecast in Texas's 15th District moved toward Democrat Bobby Pulido over the past week. On August 19, our model gave him a 36% chance against Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz. As of this morning, that is 45 in 100 — a gain of 8.7 points of win probability over seven days.

One poll...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5