FL-16

Kelly Kirschner (Dem)
Sydney Gruters (Rep)

Favors Rep

Republicans84%

Republicans are favored, winning 83,545 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans83%

Republicans are favored, winning 82,973 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+8.3

5th–95th interval

R+22.2 to D+5.7

Estimated margin

R+8.1

5th–95th interval

R+22.0 to D+5.9

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+0.3

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
SEA Polling dem sponsor	Aug 25–Aug 29, 2026	400 lv	Kelly Kirschner 40.0% Sydney Gruters 39.0%	D+1.0	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction FL-16 Sep 4, 2026

Democratic campaign poll shows FL-16 even; our model still favors Gruters

A SEA Polling survey released through Kelly Kirschner's website has the race within a point, but our forecast is unchanged at R+10.2.

A new poll of Florida's 16th District finds the race close. SEA Polling surveyed 400 likely voters from August 25 to 29 and had Democrat Kelly Kirschner at 40 percent and Republican Sydney Gruters at 39 percent — a one-point gap in a sample that size, which is to say no measurable lead for either...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5