AZ-5
Republicans are favored, winning in 87 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 19, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 87%
Estimated margin
R+11.4
5th–95th interval
R+28.2 to D+5.6
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
No public polling — forecast rests on fundamentals (state lean, national environment).
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.