AZ-5
- Elizabeth Lee (Dem)
- Mark Lamb (Rep)
Favors Rep
Republicans88%
Republicans are favored, winning 88,201 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Rep
Republicans88%
Republicans are favored, winning 88,201 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+10.1
5th–95th interval
R+24.1 to D+3.9
Estimated margin
R+10.1
5th–95th interval
R+24.1 to D+3.9
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
No public polling — forecast rests on fundamentals (state lean, national environment).
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.