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535

TX-34

  • Vicente Gonzalez (Dem · incumbent)
  • Eric Flores (Rep)

Favors Dem

Democrats94%

Democrats are favored, winning 93,677 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats94%

Democrats are favored, winning 93,662 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+13.0

5th–95th interval

R+1.0 to D+26.9

Estimated margin

D+13.0

5th–95th interval

R+1.0 to D+26.9

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+3.0 current average: D+2.9

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Chris Royal (LIB) vs Eric Flores (R) vs Vicente Gonzalez (D) · 1 poll
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center Aug 18–Aug 22, 2026 700 lv Vicente Gonzalez 45.0% Eric Flores 42.0% Other 2.0% D+3.0 — Source
Eric Flores (R) vs Vicente Gonzalez (D) · 2 polls
Ragnar Research Partners rep sponsor Jun 14–Jun 16, 2026 400 lv Eric Flores 44.0% Vicente Gonzalez 41.0% R+3.0 — Source
co/efficient rep sponsor Apr 25–Apr 29, 2026 777 lv Eric Flores 41.0% Vicente Gonzalez 40.0% R+1.0 D+1.3 R+2.3 lean removed Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction TX-34 Aug 26, 2026

New TX-34 poll shows a close race; our forecast eases toward Gonzalez

A Public Policy Research/Texas Southern University survey has Vicente Gonzalez at 45 percent and Eric Flores at 42; our model now gives the Democrat an 81 percent chance.

A Public Policy Research/Texas Southern University survey of 700 likely voters in Texas' 34th District, fielded August 18-22, put Democratic incumbent Vicente Gonzalez at 45 percent and Republican Eric Flores at 42 percent. That is a three-point gap with 13 percent unaccounted for, and it is best...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5