OH-7

Brian Poindexter (Dem)
Max Miller (Rep · incumbent)

Favors Rep

Republicans68%

Republicans are favored, winning 68,259 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans68%

Republicans are favored, winning 67,597 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+4.1

5th–95th interval

R+18.1 to D+10.0

Estimated margin

R+3.9

5th–95th interval

R+17.9 to D+10.1

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+8.0 current average: D+7.8

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Bedrock Polling dem sponsor	Aug 7–Aug 10, 2026	866 lv	Brian Poindexter 43.0% Max Miller 35.0%	D+8.0	D+8.8 R+0.8 lean removed	Source
Tavern Research	Aug 4, 2026	635 lv	Brian Poindexter 54.0% Max Miller 46.0%	D+8.0	—	Source
GBAO dem sponsor	Jun 16–Jun 20, 2026	500 lv	Max Miller 44.0% Brian Poindexter 43.0%	R+1.0	R+1.7 D+0.7 lean removed	Source

Dispatches about this race

Movement note OH-7 Sep 6, 2026

Model moves Ohio's 7th back toward Miller, with no new polling

Brian Poindexter's chance falls from even to 29 in 100 in a week, and nothing in our polling file arrived in that span to explain it.

Our model now gives Democrat Brian Poindexter a 29 in 100 chance in Ohio's 7th District, against 71% for Republican Max Miller. A week earlier, on August 30, the same model had the district at 50-50. That is a shift of 20.2 points of Democratic win probability in seven days, all of it toward...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Movement note OH-7 Aug 30, 2026

Ohio's 7th District moves to a coin flip in our model

Our estimate of the Democrat's chance fell from 59 percent to 50 percent over seven days, with no new district polling in this run.

Our model now gives Democrat Brian Poindexter a 50 in 100 chance in Ohio's 7th District, against Republican incumbent Max Miller. That is down 9.5 points of Democratic win probability from the run of August 23, when the estimate stood at 59 percent.

The projected margin moved with it. A week ago...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5

Movement note OH-7 Aug 23, 2026

Model trims Democratic odds in Ohio's 7th District

Our estimate for the seat moved from 68% to 59% over six days, with no new district polling in the payload to explain it.

Our model now gives the Democrat a 59 in 100 chance in Ohio's 7th Congressional District, down from 68% in our run of August 16. That is a drop of 8.6 points of Democratic win probability over six days.

The expected margin moved with it. Our model's mean margin in the district is now D+2.5,...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5