IL-16
- Paul Nolley (Dem)
- Darin LaHood (Rep · incumbent)
Favors Rep
Republicans100%
Republicans are favored, winning 99,786 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Rep
Republicans100%
Republicans are favored, winning 99,786 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+24.3
5th–95th interval
R+38.2 to R+10.3
Estimated margin
R+24.3
5th–95th interval
R+38.2 to R+10.3
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
No public polling — forecast rests on fundamentals (state lean, national environment).
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.