FL-11
- James Pericola (Dem)
- Joe Strada (Rep)
Favors Rep
Republicans88%
Republicans are favored, winning 88,251 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Rep
Republicans88%
Republicans are favored, winning 88,076 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+10.1
5th–95th interval
R+24.0 to D+3.9
Estimated margin
R+10.0
5th–95th interval
R+24.0 to D+4.0
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+1.1
Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDW Communications dem sponsor | Jul 28–Jul 30, 2026 | 1,044 lv | Joe Strada 42.1% James Pericola 41.8% | R+0.3 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.