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535

WI-1

  • Mitchell Berman (Dem)
  • Bryan Steil (Rep · incumbent)

Tossup

Democrats53%

This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 52,578 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Tossup

Democrats52%

This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins 51,962 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+0.5

5th–95th interval

R+13.5 to D+14.5

Estimated margin

D+0.4

5th–95th interval

R+13.6 to D+14.4

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+0.8

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
DCCC Targeting Team dem sponsor Sep 21–Sep 23, 2026 495 lv Bryan Steil 48.0% Mitchell Berman 48.0% Even — Source
Impact Research dem sponsor Aug 6–Aug 9, 2026 400 lv Bryan Steil 49.0% Mitchell Berman 48.0% R+1.0 — Source
Ragnar Research Partners rep sponsor Mar 14–Mar 16, 2026 400 lv Bryan Steil 50.0% Mitchell Berman 41.0% R+9.0 — Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction WI-1 Sep 29, 2026

Tied poll in Wisconsin's 1st leaves our forecast where it was

A DCCC Targeting Team survey shows Steil and Berman even at 48 percent, and our model's estimate for the district barely moves.

A new poll of Wisconsin's 1st District shows a tied race. A DCCC Targeting Team survey of 495 likely voters, fielded September 21-23, has Republican incumbent Bryan Steil and Democrat Mitchell Berman each at 48 percent.

The poll confirmed what our forecast already showed rather than changing it....

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5