IA-4
- Dave Dawson (Dem)
- Chris McGowan (Rep)
Favors Rep
Republicans100%
Republicans are favored, winning 99,754 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Rep
Republicans100%
Republicans are favored, winning 99,754 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+23.7
5th–95th interval
R+37.5 to R+9.8
Estimated margin
R+23.7
5th–95th interval
R+37.5 to R+9.8
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
No public polling — forecast rests on fundamentals (state lean, national environment).
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.