SC-1
Republicans are favored, winning in 75 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 19, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 75%
Estimated margin
R+6.8
5th–95th interval
R+23.8 to D+10.1
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+2.0
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Reeside Jr. (L) vs Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R) vs Nancy Lacore (D) · 1 poll | ||||||
| GQR | Jul 15–Jul 22, 2026 | 400 lv | Rep 43.0% Dem 41.0% Other 5.0% | R+2.0 | — | Source |
| Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R) vs Nancy Lacore (D) · 1 poll | ||||||
| GQR | Jul 15–Jul 22, 2026 | 400 lv | Rep 50.0% Dem 48.0% | R+2.0 | — | Source |
| Mac Deford (D) vs Mark Smith (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling | Dec 5–Dec 6, 2025 | 645 lv | Rep 39.0% Dem 36.0% | R+3.0 | R+2.8 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.