SC-1

Nancy Lacore (Dem)
Jenny Costa Honeycutt (Rep)

Favors Rep

Republicans73%

Republicans are favored, winning 72,761 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans72%

Republicans are favored, winning 71,716 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+5.1

5th–95th interval

R+19.0 to D+8.8

Estimated margin

R+4.9

5th–95th interval

R+18.7 to D+9.1

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+3.7 current average: R+3.3

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Bill Reeside (LIB) vs Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R) vs Nancy Lacore (D) · 1 poll
co/efficient	Sep 30–Oct 1, 2026	837 lv	Jenny Costa Honeycutt 46.0% Nancy Lacore 40.0% Other 4.0%	R+6.0	R+3.7 R+2.3 lean removed	Source
Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R) vs Nancy Lacore (D) · 2 polls
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor	Sep 9–Sep 10, 2026	536 rv	Jenny Costa Honeycutt 41.0% Nancy Lacore 40.0%	R+1.0	D+0.5 R+1.5 lean removed	Source
GQR dem sponsor	Jul 15–Jul 22, 2026	n/a lv	Jenny Costa Honeycutt 50.0% Nancy Lacore 48.0%	R+2.0	—	Source
Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R) vs Nancy Lacore (D) · 1 poll
GQR dem sponsor	Jul 15–Jul 22, 2026	n/a lv	Jenny Costa Honeycutt 43.0% Nancy Lacore 41.0% Other 2.0%	R+2.0	—	Source
Mac Deford (D) vs Mark Smith (R) · 1 poll Polled before the field was set
Public Policy Polling dem sponsor	Dec 5–Dec 6, 2025	645 lv	Rep 39.0% Dem 36.0%	R+3.0	R+1.5 R+1.5 lean removed	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction SC-1 Oct 2, 2026

A co/efficient poll has Honeycutt at 46 percent in SC-1, and our forecast barely moves

Our model now gives Democrat Nancy Lacore a 28 percent chance in South Carolina's 1st District, up from 25 percent earlier today, with Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt still favored.

A co/efficient survey of 837 likely voters in South Carolina's 1st District, fielded September 30 to October 1, has Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt at 46 percent and Democrat Nancy Lacore at 40 percent. Another 4 percent chose another option.

Our model now gives Lacore a 28 in 100 chance of...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Poll reaction SC-1 Sep 16, 2026

A close SC-1 poll nudges our forecast, and little else

Public Policy Polling shows Honeycutt 41, Lacore 40; our model still gives the Democrat a 23 in 100 chance in the district.

A Public Policy Polling survey of 536 registered voters in South Carolina's 1st District, sponsored by The Bench and fielded September 9-10, put Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt at 41 percent and Democrat Nancy Lacore at 40 percent. That is a close race by any reading, and a large share of...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5