CT-5
- Jahana Hayes (Dem · incumbent)
- Chris Shea (Rep)
Favors Dem
Democrats98%
Democrats are favored, winning 98,060 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Dem
Democrats98%
Democrats are favored, winning 98,060 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
D+17.6
5th–95th interval
D+3.5 to D+31.4
Estimated margin
D+17.6
5th–95th interval
D+3.5 to D+31.4
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
No public polling — forecast rests on fundamentals (state lean, national environment).
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.