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535

VA-5

Republicans are favored, winning in 70 in 100 simulations.

Forecast detail

as of Aug 19, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT

Rating

Favors Rep

Win probability

R 70%

Estimated margin

R+5.4

5th–95th interval

R+22.5 to D+11.5

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+3.0

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Expedition Strategies Jul 29–Aug 1, 2026 602 lv Rep 47.0% Dem 44.0% R+3.0 Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction VA-5 Aug 18, 2026

A close VA-5 poll leaves our forecast where it was

Expedition Strategies has the Republican up three points; our model still gives the Democrat a 30 percent chance in the district.

One new poll of Virginia's 5th District has the race inside a few points. Expedition Strategies surveyed 602 likely voters from July 29 to August 1 and found the Republican at 47 percent and the Democrat at 44 percent. A three-point gap on that sample size is not a measurable lead, so the fair...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5