VA-5

Tom Perriello (Dem)
John McGuire (Rep · incumbent)

Favors Rep

Republicans71%

Republicans are favored, winning 70,765 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans70%

Republicans are favored, winning 69,918 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+4.7

5th–95th interval

R+18.7 to D+9.3

Estimated margin

R+4.4

5th–95th interval

R+18.4 to D+9.5

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+6.0 current average: R+4.9

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
John McGuire (R) vs Tom Perriello (D) · 2 polls
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government	Sep 23–Sep 28, 2026	600 lv	John McGuire 51.0% Tom Perriello 45.0%	R+6.0	—	Source
Expedition Strategies dem sponsor	Jul 29–Aug 1, 2026	602 lv	John McGuire 47.0% Tom Perriello 44.0%	R+3.0	—	Source
Cooke Harvey (I) vs John McGuire (R) vs Tom Perriello (D) · 1 poll
Expedition Strategies dem sponsor	Sep 21–Sep 24, 2026	400 lv	John McGuire 46.0% Tom Perriello 45.0% Ind 6.0%	R+1.0	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction VA-5 Oct 2, 2026

One-point VA-5 poll leaves our forecast for McGuire and Perriello unchanged

The Expedition Strategies survey finds a close race, while our model still gives McGuire the better chance and an average margin of R+4.7.

A new poll of Virginia's 5th District finds a close race between Republican Rep. John McGuire and Democrat Tom Perriello. An Expedition Strategies survey of 400 likely voters, fielded September 21-24, puts McGuire at 46% and Perriello at 45%. In the same survey, 6% chose an independent...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Poll reaction VA-5 Oct 1, 2026

New VA-5 poll nudges our forecast slightly toward McGuire

A Washington Post/George Mason survey puts the Republican incumbent at 51 percent, and our model's estimate of the margin edges a half point his way.

A new Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government survey of 600 likely voters in Virginia's 5th District, fielded September 23-28, has Republican Rep. John McGuire at 51 percent and Democrat Tom Perriello at 45 percent.

The poll moved our forecast a little in...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5

Poll reaction VA-5 Aug 18, 2026

A close VA-5 poll leaves our forecast where it was

Expedition Strategies has the Republican up three points; our model still gives the Democrat a 30 percent chance in the district.

One new poll of Virginia's 5th District has the race inside a few points. Expedition Strategies surveyed 602 likely voters from July 29 to August 1 and found the Republican at 47 percent and the Democrat at 44 percent. A three-point gap on that sample size is not a measurable lead, so the fair...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5