Maine's 1st District poll trims our margin, not our odds
A University of New Hampshire survey puts Chellie Pingree up 57-35, and our model still gives her essentially a certain chance of winning.
A University of New Hampshire survey of 657 likely voters in Maine's 1st District, fielded September 17-21, has Democratic incumbent Chellie Pingree at 57 percent and Republican Ronald Russell at 35 percent. That is a 22-point lead.
Our model still gives Pingree a 100 in 100 chance of winning...
Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5