NY-2
- Patrick Halpin (Dem)
- Andrew Garbarino (Rep · incumbent)
Favors Rep
Republicans82%
Republicans are favored, winning 81,599 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Rep
Republicans82%
Republicans are favored, winning 81,599 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
R+7.6
5th–95th interval
R+21.6 to D+6.3
Estimated margin
R+7.6
5th–95th interval
R+21.6 to D+6.3
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
No public polling — forecast rests on fundamentals (state lean, national environment).
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.