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535

SC-2

  • Zyon Khalifa (Dem)
  • Joe Wilson (Rep · incumbent)

Favors Rep

Republicans85%

Republicans are favored, winning 84,624 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Rep

Republicans85%

Republicans are favored, winning 84,624 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

R+8.6

5th–95th interval

R+22.6 to D+5.4

Estimated margin

R+8.6

5th–95th interval

R+22.6 to D+5.4

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

No public polling — forecast rests on fundamentals (state lean, national environment).

Dispatches about this race

No dispatches about this race yet.