NC-1

Don Davis (Dem · incumbent)
Laurie Buckhout (Rep)

Favors Dem

Democrats93%

Democrats are favored, winning 92,779 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats92%

Democrats are favored, winning 92,177 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+12.4

5th–95th interval

R+1.6 to D+26.4

Estimated margin

D+12.1

5th–95th interval

R+1.9 to D+26.0

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+5.5

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Results	Margin	House adj.	Source
Don Davis (D) vs Laurie Buckhout (R) · 3 polls
GBAO dem sponsor	Sep 8–Sep 11, 2026	500 lv	Don Davis 50.0% Laurie Buckhout 43.0%	D+7.0	D+6.3 D+0.7 lean removed	Source
GQR dem sponsor	Jun 22–Jun 28, 2026	500 lv	Don Davis 45.0% Laurie Buckhout 41.0%	D+4.0	—	Source
co/efficient rep sponsor	Apr 25–Apr 29, 2026	842 lv	Don Davis 41.0% Laurie Buckhout 41.0%	Even	D+2.3 R+2.3 lean removed	Source
Don Davis (D) vs Laurie Buckhout (R) vs Thomas Aaron Bailey (LIB) · 1 poll
GQR dem sponsor	Jan 29–Feb 2, 2026	500 lv	Don Davis 42.0% Laurie Buckhout 39.0% Other 9.0%	D+3.0	—	Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction NC-1 Sep 15, 2026

New NC-1 poll puts Davis up seven, and our forecast barely moves

A GBAO survey for House Majority PAC has the Democratic incumbent at 50% to Laurie Buckhout's 43%; our model now gives Davis an 89% chance.

A GBAO survey of 500 likely voters in North Carolina's 1st District, fielded September 8-11 for House Majority PAC, has Democratic incumbent Don Davis at 50% and Republican Laurie Buckhout at 43%.

That is close to what our model already had. Our forecast gives Davis an 89 in 100 chance, with a...

Read the full dispatch →

Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5