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535

AL-2

  • Shomari Figures (Dem · incumbent)
  • Rhett Marques (Rep)

Favors Dem

Democrats99%

Democrats are favored, winning 99,052 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Favors Dem

Democrats99%

Democrats are favored, winning 98,839 of 100,000 simulated elections.

Forecast detail

as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT

Estimated margin

D+19.9

5th–95th interval

D+6.0 to D+33.8

Estimated margin

D+19.3

5th–95th interval

D+5.4 to D+33.2

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+0.8

Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Tulchin Research dem sponsor Aug 24–Aug 31, 2026 n/a lv Rhett Marques 47.0% Shomari Figures 47.0% Even — Source
DCCC Targeting Team dem sponsor Jul 29–Jul 30, 2026 421 lv Rhett Marques 46.0% Shomari Figures 46.0% Even — Source
Impact Research dem sponsor Jun 22–Jun 25, 2026 400 lv Rhett Marques 45.0% Shomari Figures 44.0% R+1.0 — Source

Dispatches about this race

Poll reaction AL-2 Sep 9, 2026

A tied poll in AL-2 leaves our forecast where it was

Tulchin Research shows Shomari Figures and Rhett Marques level at 47, but our model still gives the Democrat a 97 in 100 chance.

The only new number in Alabama's 2nd District has the race even. A Tulchin Research survey of likely voters, sponsored by House Majority PAC and fielded August 24-31, put Republican Rhett Marques at 47 percent and Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures at 47 percent. No margin of error was reported with...

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Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5