AL-2
Democrats are favored, winning in 94 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 19, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 94%
Estimated margin
D+16.2
5th–95th interval
R+0.7 to D+33.1
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+0.2
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC | Jul 29–Jul 30, 2026 | 421 lv | Dem 46.0% Rep 46.0% | Even | — | Source |
| Impact Research | Jun 22–Jun 25, 2026 | 400 lv | Rep 45.0% Dem 44.0% | R+1.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.