VA-2
- Elaine Luria (Dem)
- Elaine Luria (Dem)
- Jen Kiggans (Rep · incumbent)
- Jen Kiggans (Rep · incumbent)
Favors Dem
Democrats79%
Democrats are favored, winning 79,373 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Favors Dem
Democrats79%
Democrats are favored, winning 79,293 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Forecast detail
as of Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EDT
Estimated margin
D+7.0
5th–95th interval
R+7.1 to D+20.9
Estimated margin
D+6.9
5th–95th interval
R+7.1 to D+20.9
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+0.8
Polls from partisan-aligned sponsors are shown but not in this view's average — flip “Partisan internals” in the header to include them.Partisan-sponsored polls are in this view's average, shifted 0.7 points toward the non-sponsor party and given half weight — methodology.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research dem sponsor | Jul 9–Jul 13, 2026 | 700 lv | Jen Kiggans 47.0% Elaine Luria 47.0% | Even | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.